2017 Busts

With draft season right around the corner, it's time to identify which players we want to steer clear of and which ones we want to target.

I will be using the .5PPR scoring rankings from Fantasy Pros instead of my rankings, as it gives the current (Avg Draft Pos) for all sites that are currently drafting. You might disagree with the players listed, but these are players that I will plan to avoid because their ADP is too high / in for a bad year with changes etc.

Jay Ajayi - RB #7 ADP 15

He is too inconsistent to be on my team in the first 30 picks. He should get a lot of volume and does have a great OC/HC in Gase, but he goes only as Mike Pouncey at Center goes. Unfortunately for the both of them, Pouncey can never stay healthy. He failed to rush for more than 42 yards in the first 4 without him. With Pouncey he ran for 204,211,111,79,77. Once sidelined for the year he failed to rush for more than 61 yards weeks 10-15. He did have a huge day against a NE team that clinched in week 16 but I am going with the overall body of work.

Marshawn Lynch RB #14 ADP 35

This has bust written all over it. I am going to question the desire of a player that retired for one year, then answers that he did not miss the game at all when asked by a reporter. He is 31 years old, was injury plagued his last couple of seasons and didn't produce during those. I just do not want that kind of player in the 3rd round. He does have a great offensive line and will get a lot of goal-line work that could save his season. So while he doesn't fall off like Blount (more on him in a moment) he will be more of a boom / bust type player this season. If you can get round 5 or later, you will be happy with his production.

Jarvis Landry WR #24 ADP 42

The injury to Ryan Tannehill cost Jarvis millions. His check down buddy couldn't of been injured during a more costly time for Jarvis as he is in the final year of his deal. He now gets the cig smoking, gun slinging, god awful Jay Cutler. Fantastic news for the tall and fast D. Parker but awful for the short average speed 8-11 yard route running Landry. You would be out of your mind taking him in the first 4 rounds. I would expect his targets, catches, yards, TDs to all drop 10% at the min this year. He is a solid 3rd WR, but plenty others with far greater upside.

Outlook - Round 7 or later.

Ty Montgomery RB #18 ADP 43

Shocking as it might be, but I have no interest in a WR playing RB that is currently injured. He never carried it more than 16 times in a game and I don't see how he can hold up for a full season. I would be stunned if he averaged more than 12 carries a game which makes him impossible to take as a RB #2. He does bring value in PPR as he will be heavily involved in the passing game. Also another RB that will be looking over his back as a Rookie could easily take his job.

LeGarrette Blount RB#34 ADP 86

Well it appears his ADP dropped like that dude he hit after the Boise St game. When I started to ponder who I wanted to write about, he was the first person that came to mind. This ADP freefall is a good thing, as he is one of the least talented players in the NFL. He is extremely slow and overweight. Sorry you do not have Tom to make you look 1000x better than you're this year. No more short goal-line plunges to boost your stats, and 5-6 man fronts to run against. If you want to see how he will perform, take a look at his game tape in Pit before he was cut and shipped back to NE. He is simply not on my draft board, I do not care what round it is. A great RB situation was ruined by a terrible acquisition by the Eagles, thanks a lot.

Now let's take a look at other players that I will avoid because of the awful QB situation that they are stuck with.

Demaryius Thomas - WR #14 ADP 29

He will get a ton of volume and finish as a top 20 WR but for a guy talented enough to be in the top 5 his QB will cap his ceiling. Outlook - Round 4 or later

Alshon Jeffery WR #17 ADP 36

Talent and QB are not the problem here. He has never been able to stay healthy and already has missed a lot of the pre-season this year. Outlook - Round 4 or later

Allen Robinson WR #18 ADP 38

You poor man. No one should ever have to catch passes from Blake Bortles, who I was correct about even though everyone argued with me during his huge garbage time #s year. Give him Justin Worley and he's a top 12 WR "Slightly Kidding" Outlook - Do not want, I would quit if I was Allen Round 5 or later

Sammy Watkins WR #23 ADP 51

This was his year. I had him projected as the 10th best WR. Then he was shipped off to the worst 1st overall QB selection in NFL history. I do think he has one of the best offensive minds as his coach, which hopefully leads to some better play out of Goff, but his drop reflects his new home. Outlook - Round 6 or later

Spencer Ware RB #21 ADP 56

Reid loves to use 1 and only 1 RB as his bell cow. With the talented and highly drafted Kareem Hunt, Ware had better produce early or he will see the bench instead of the endzone. He is one of many RBs that have a talented rookie looking to take their starting role. Outlook - Handcuff

Robert Kelley RB #36 ADP 100

This looks to be worse than the KC situation. I believe it is when and not if that S. Perine takes over the starting role here. Both should get a decent amount of work but something to keep your eye on.

Next we will discuss the Breakouts and Sleepers.