2019 Team Previews - Detroit Lions
Projected Starting Lineup QB: Matthew Stafford RB: Kerryon Johnson WR: Marvin Jones Jr. WR: Danny Amendola WR: Kenny Golladay TE: T.J. Hockenson
LT: Taylor Decker LG: Frank Ragnow C: Graham Glasgow
RG: Kenny Wiggins RT: Rick Wagner
Detroit Lions Offensive Profile
2015-2018 Pass Attempts Rank: 4th, 11th, 10th, 11th 2015-2018 Rush Attempts Rank: 30th, 31st, 31st, 18th 2015-2018 Play Volume Rank: 17th, 29th, 28th, 18th 2015-2018 Yards Per Play Rank: 20th, 17th, 9th, 27th
Darrell Bevell's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. (12 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
490 307 62.5 3619 7.4 359 70 23 4.7 13 2.7 41 263
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
474 2119 4.43 68 13 15 132.4 8 4 110
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
307 490 3619 11.82 23 70 49 226.2 4 2 1598 169
Quarterback-
Matthew Stafford will be working with a new offensive coordinator as Jim Bob Cooter was let go by the team after a disappointing 6-10 season. New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is one of the most run heavy coordinators in the league as his teams average 474 rush attempts per year.
This transition from a pass happy offense to one that will be much more run dependent, severally limits Stafford's fantasy ceiling. In what use to be a guarantee that Stafford would throw 600 times for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, Stafford will now how to be one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league to reach his old floor.
When looking at his Darrell Bevell's career as a coordinator, I feel the most likely fit will be similar to the one he ran in Minnesota with Brett Farve from 2009-2010. Those teams had a very balanced approach, but also featured a single bell-cow running back in Adrian Peterson. I do not believe Kerryon Johnson is that type of workload back, but do feel as though Stafford will still go over 550 attempts on the year while the running game is around his average of 474 carries.
Wide Receiver-
Coming into his Third year, Kenny Golladay should be the leading receiver for this Lions team. With Golden Tate now in New York and Marvin Jones mainly a deep threat, it will be Golladay that sees the majority of Stafford's passes this season. After leading the Lions in receiving last season (70 1,063 5TD) Golladay looks to become a top-15 receiver this season. I am just not sure that there will be enough volume in this Detroit passing offense to get him there, I have him as a top-25 receiver in fantasy football.
Marvin Jones exploded in 2017 albeit in a down year for receivers. He went on to have his first top-ten finish amongst his position group with 61 catches for 1,101 while adding 9 touchdowns in 2017. A major regression was coming in 2018 which was why I had him as one of my bust candidates last season. That proved to be true as he only caught 35 of 65 passes for 508 yards and 5 touchdowns in nine games. Frankly, he is just a deep threat that does not have a developed enough route tree to make a consistent enough impact for me to draft him on any of my teams.
Tight End-
One thing that Matthew Stafford has never done a great deal of is targeting his tight ends. It was one reason I thought the Eric Ebron pick was terrible and yet the franchise does it again with TJ Hockenson. One of the best tight end prospects in the last several years, Hockenson simply went to an awful situation in Detroit. He is talented enough to overcome this, but with both his quarterback and offensive coordinator never showing much interest in the tight end, it will be tough to see him producing at an elite level this season. Running Back-
Kerryon Johnson-
If you were drawing up a script on how to maximize Kerryon Johnson's fantasy production this season it would have gone exactly how this offseason unfolded. The Lions released third down pass catching specialist Theo Riddick last week, which adds a ton of value to the sure handed Johnson. Last season Johnson caught 32 passes in just 10 games while Riddick caught 61 of 74 targets. That is a ton of passing down work coming Kerryon's way as he can now be viewed as a three-down type player.
The biggest issue with Johnson appears to be CJ Anderson, as he has caught the coaching staffs eye this camp and is someone they want to get 150+ carries this season. If he also takes over all goal-line situations, Johnson's value takes a massive hit. I am still a huge fan of the situation and coordinator and will be looking to add Johnson in the 3rd or 4th rounds of drafts. 2019 Vegas Win Total The Lions’ Win Total opened at 6.5 (-130). I couldn't think of a team going more against an analytical approach than the Detroit Lions. The Lions have an extremely talented quarterback with some very good weapons on the outside and at running back. So they trade away one of the best slot receivers in Golden Tate and brought in one of the run heaviest oriented offensive coordinators in the last decade in Darrell Bevell. I do not think this Matt Patricia experiment will go very well and or past this season. I do believe in Kerryon Johnson's ability and believe that the defense will be better in year two. The schedule is not awful but they must win 4 of the 6 toss up games in order to have a chance at hitting the over.
