Grading Breakouts & Sleepers! (2019)
Now that the 2019 Fantasy Football season has concluded, let's grade my preseason breakout & sleeper projections! Below I have my original comments from my article written on Sept, 4th 2019. The BOLD comments will be the grade portion of this article. All rankings will be based on .5 per reception scoring.
Breakouts - ADD STATS FOR THESE REVIEWS******
Nick Chubb - Pre-Draft RB #5 ADP 10
After a fantastic rookie season Nick Chubb looks to lead a potent Browns offense as the bell-cow running back this season. His stock took off like a rocket when pass catching specialist Duke Johnson was traded to the Texans as he should now see some passings down work to go with the majority of the rushing down work.
Grade= C+
While Nick Chubb finished two spots higher than his ADP, he was two spots lower at his position. What could have been a top-3 finish at his position, Kareem Hunt took over a massive target share when he returned from suspension. Hard to complain though, when your first round pick rushes for 1,494 yards, 8 touchdowns while adding 36 receptions in his second NFL season.
Dalvin Cook- Pre-Draft RB #9 ADP 17
The only thing keeping Cook from breaking out this season will be another injury. The former Florida State Seminole will see a ton of work in this new ground and pound Viking offense run by Kevin Stefanski. I believe Cook has top-5 upside and is someone I am looking to snag in the second round of drafts.
Grade= A
It's hard to smash your value when you have an ADP of 17, but Dalvin Cook did just that. Cook played in 14 of 16 games rushing for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns, finishing as the 6th overall player in fantasy football. He was an absolute monster, and helped carry teams deep into the playoffs and paid off those 2nd round selections.
Aaron Jones - Pre-Draft RB #12 ADP 28
With Jones finally winning the starting job and coming into camp in great shape, he looks poised to breakout in 2019. The Packers new offense under Matt LaFleur is going to feature Jones in both the running game and passing game which makes him one of the better 3rd round picks on the board.
Grade= A+
Even with an incompetent Head Coach, Jones smashed his value finishing 3rd overall last season on only 285 touches. Imagine the type of damage Jones could do if he got 100+ targets and 250+ rushes. While he was a breakout last season, Jones is going to be one of the biggest regression candidates this year having rushed for 16 touchdowns last season on just 236 carries.
Leonard Fournette- Pre-Draft RB #14 ADP 31
I have faded Fournette in his first two seasons as a pro but with a new found focus and an ADP that has dropped 20+ spots he is now a value this fantasy football season. It is not often you find a running back that is going to get 250+ carries and 50+ targets. The scuttle this off-season is how much they plan on incorporating Fournette in the passing game. Sign me up and give me all the Fournette I can have in the 3rd round.
Grade= B+
With three touchdowns on the year, Leonard Fournette was still able to better his ADP of 31 by 17 spots. The coaching staff was not lying when they said they wanted to get him more involved in the passing game, as Fournette saw 100 targets. He would have crushed his value if he could have cashed in more than 3-of-23 attempts inside the 10. He was a dependable RB1 all season and more than paid off his value in the 3rd/4th rounds of your drafts.
Chris Carson - Pre-Draft RB #16 ADP 41
Another player who broke out last season, Carson looks to be the lead back for one of the most heavy run teams in the league. The early reports out of camp have been fantastic, with also some talk of getting him more involved in the passing game as Mike Davis and his 42 targets are now in Chicago. I am beyond thrilled at getting him in the 4th round of my drafts
Grade= A
The run heavy approach in Seattle paid dividends to your fantasy teams , if you were able draft Chris Carson in the 3rd or 4th rounds of your draft. He outperformed his ADP by 23 spots finishing 18th overall. With 1,230 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, Carson was another fantastic running back value in last years draft.
Tyler Lockett - Pre-Draft WR #16 ADP 48
With Doug Baldwin now retired, Lockett looks poised to take over as the lead receiver in Seattle. Lockett is a matchup nightmare in the slot and one of the best deep-threats in the NFL. The only concern here is lack of volume as this will be one of the heaviest run teams in the NFL. If he can reach 100+ targets he will finish inside the top-15 at his position.
Grade= B+
Take over indeed, as Lockett lead the Seahawks in targets with 110 in which he caught 82 of those for 1,057 yards and 8 touchdowns. Even though the Seahawks refuse to release Russell Wilson and this passing attack, Lockett still made the most of his opportunities finishing inside the top-15 at his position. Much like Aaron Jones, it would be really interesting to see the totals that Lockett could put up if he saw the volume that other top-10 WRs . receive
Chris Godwin - Pre-Draft WR #17 ADP 49
The early summer months when Chris Godwin was going after round seven did not last long but how can I not put this guy on the list? He will be lined up in the slot on the majority of snaps in a Bruce Arians offense that funneled targets to the position since his early play calling days. He is one of my favorite picks in the 4th round and is someone who has top-10 upside at his position.
Grade= A+
My highest owned fantasy asset last season was Chris Godwin and boy did he pay off in a big way. Finishing the season with 86 receptions on 121 targets for 1,333 yards and 9 touchdowns, Godwin finished as the WR2 last season smashing his pre-draft ADP of 49 and WR17 projection. The situation looks even better this year with Tom Brady, who loves to work the middle of the field with his slot receivers and this is the most talented one he has ever had. Another fantastic value on our breakouts list, as we have achieved ADP or better on all of our prospects so far.
Cooper Kupp - Pre-Draft WR #20 ADP 61
Not too often I will back a guy coming off a torn ACL just 9 months ago, but with Cooper Kupp how can one not? He is the main red-zone target for one of the leagues best offenses and is someone Goff looks to when they need to make a play. If he truly is 100% from the injury, he will outperform fellow Ram Robert Woods and reach his ADP.
Grade= A+
Cooper Kupp continues our list of players that smashed value last season, as he finished as the WR4. With Brandin Cooks taking a bit of a backseat in the offense, Kupp caught 94 of 134 targets for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns, which helped him finish as the 13th overall player. The breakouts list stays hot, as we are finally approaching a couple of misses on our list.
Duke Johnson - Pre-Draft RB #27 ADP 80
One of the best passing downs backs got a major upgrade when he was traded to Houston this offseason. The Texans offense is absolutely loaded and should provide a ton of opportunity for the former Miami Hurricane. The All-Time leading rusher in Hurricane's history looks poised for 200+ carries and 40+ catches this season making him a steal at his current ADP.
Grade= D+
What could have been, as Billy B decided to go with a far inferior talent in Carlos Hyde to lead this rushing attack. Carlos Hyde managed to reach 1,000 yards at 4.4 YPC while Duke Johnson averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per reception sat mostly on the bench. Another reason why you can't think coaches will make rationale decisions but we will take the L here if you took him in the 6th or 7th round, as he did not pay-off his value.
Hunter Henry - Pre-Draft TE #6 ADP 66
One of my favorite tight end prospects in over a decade finally looks to be healthy and ready to ascend into the top-5 at his position. With Antonio Gates finally retiring, Henry is the apple of Rivers eye and should see a ton of volume in a very tight end friendly offense. The one thing keeping him from TE2 or even TE1 this season is Mike Williams. His target share takes a major hit with Williams in the fold but if he can get over 110 targets, watch out he has TE2 written all over him. Regardless I believe he finishes as the TE4 this season as he should be targeted 90-105 times this season.
Grade= D+
Another lost season for the talented Hunter Henry, as he only appeared in 12 games and has yet to play a full season. While he still finished inside the top-10 at his position, we were looking for more from the third-year player out of Arkansas. He has top-3 potential at the position, but looks to be a fade this season with Tyrod Taylor as his quarterback after being franchise tagged this off-season.
Josh Gordon - Pre-Draft WR #28 ADP 65
One of the most talented receivers in the league has been granted clemency by the commissioner as he is finally allowed back into the league. Last season he led the Patriots in yards / target 10.6, yards per reception (18.0), 14th of 96th in yards / route run (2.15) and 7th in yards after catch (6.7). Give me all of the Josh Gordon shares as he has top-5 positional upside.
Grade= F
Unfortunately his substance abuse problems could not be tamed, as he was cut by the Patriots six games into the 2019 season. With only 20 receptions and 1 touchdown, he was a major bust anyway for those that took him in the first 7 rounds of their draft. I always take top talent when they find themselves on one of the best coaching staffs in the league, but Gordon was my biggest bust in this article.
Austin Ekeler - Pre-Draft RB #31 ADP 80
My second favorite breakout candidate next to Jamison Crowder is Austin Ekeler. Last season he ranked 6th of 61 RBs in PFF Grade (83.6) - 7th of 56 RBs in Elusive Rating (67.6) - 6th of 56 RBs in Yards per Carry (5.23) - 7th of 31 RBs in Yards per Target (7.62) ... and was better than Melvin Gordon in each stat. His quarterback threw the ball to running backs on 27.5% of pass attempts. Melvin Gordon has said he will holdout the entire season like Bell did last year. Ekeler is currently going in the 8th round of drafts. Get as many shares of Austin Ekeler as you can.
Grade= A+
My second highest owned player last season was Austin Ekeler, like Chris Godwin he paid off in a major way. It is not too often you can select the 8th overall fantasy player in the 8th, 9th or 10th rounds of your draft. With Melvin Gordon holding out, Austin Ekeler exploded out of the gates with 20 points or more in 5-of-6 games. He was a major part of the passing offense catching 92 of 108 passes with 8 of those being touchdowns. Another player that is likely due some negative regression, it was good to be on him before his breakout season.
Derrius Guice - Pre-Draft RB #32 ADP 86
Out with the old and in with the new. The Redskins should look to make Guice the primary ball carrier on what should be a run heavy team. One of my favorite rookies from last season, Guice is returning from a torn ACL last preseason. While I still think he is a year away from being completely healthy his situation and talent alone makes him a breakout candidate this season. At his current ADP and projected workload, he will payoff his value this season and is someone you will want to own in dynasty leagues.
Finished RB #66
Grade = N/A
Guice missed the majority of the season with multiple injuries.
Dede Westbrook - Pre-Draft WR #38 ADP 81
The clear-cut #1 receiver on the Jaguars this season is Westbrook. He is currently in line for a 23-25% target share as he is the primary slot receiver which is the highest funneled target share under Foles and OC John DeFillipo. He should smash his WR ranking and has a chance to be WR2 in this offense.
Grade= D+
Thought process was good here but just picked the wrong Jaguar. DJ Chark was one of the biggest breakouts of 2019, as he was the clear-cut #1 Jags receiver this past season. This was a miss, as Westbrook did not run with his opportunity and allowed Chark to over-take him as the top receiver on a bad football team that was going to be trailing often.
John Brown - Pre-Draft WR #49 ADP 142
The best receiver in Buffalo is now John Brown after spending one year with the Ravens. Smoke looks to be exactly what Josh Allen is looking for in a receiver as he is one of the best deep-threats in the league. I would look for Brown to be the most targeted receiver on the Bills and for him to lead them in yards and receptions. He is a great late round add in all leagues as he has a ton of big play ability.
Grade= A+
Last season John Brown finally reached his potential, catching 72 passes for 1,060 and 6 touchdowns. He was one of the most consistent wide receivers last season, as he had 10+ fantasy points in 14 of 16 games. Smashing his ADP by 104 spots, Brown was another player that should have lead you to fantasy success if you read this article.
Jamison Crowder - Pre-Draft WR #51 ADP 169
My favorite Sleeper this season is Jamison Crowder. Crowder was signed by the Jets this offseason to work strictly out of the slot. Over the past three seasons no coordinator has targeted slot receivers more than Adam Gase. Sam Darnold threw to slot receivers more than any other receiver in his rookie season. I am looking for a massive year from Crowder and one that should easily put him inside the top-30 at his position with a chance to break into the top-20.
Grade= A+
While the ceiling wasn't very high for Crowder, he was a very productive fantasy player for you this season, outperforming his ADP by 105 spots. Finishing with 78 catches on 122 targets the volume was there as predicted, which was the rationale behind grabbing a steady floor receiver late in your drafts for bye weeks and injuries.
Breakout Overall Grade-
With 6-of-15 prospects ending up with an A+ grade and several players finishing well inside the top-25 overall, it was an overall very successful year predicting breakouts. Unfortunately, we had one F (bust) and three D+ grades. The goal is to not have a single bust on our breakout article each season, but with half of our breakouts smashing value, we can safely say this was out best breakout article to date.
Sleepers -
Reminder - NO top 40 Picks were allowed to be considered a sleeper.
Latavius Murray - Pre-Draft RB #30 ADP 83
One of my favorite mid round players this year is Latavius Murray. He is in a great situation in which he should see a ton of work as they look to keep him and Kamara fresh for the playoffs. He is also one of the best goal-line backs in the league and on a team that averages 20 rushing touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. If god forbid anything happened to Kamara, Murray becomes an instant top-10 RB the rest of the season.
Grade= C
Finishing right where he projected, Murray did not hurt you last season.
Will Fuller - Pre-Draft WR #33 ADP 80
With the injury to Keke Coutee, a lot of targets became available for Will Fuller. In just 16 games Fuller has 11 touchdowns. The Texans face a very difficult schedule and should have to throw it more than they have in the previous two seasons. I am looking for a big year from Fuller this season.
Grade= N/A
It is really unfortunate that Fuller continues to miss games, as he was an absolute monster when healthy. A prime example of this is when he caught 14 of 16 targets for 217 yards and 3 yes 3 touchdowns against the Falcons.
Curtis Samuel - Pre-Draft WR #34 ADP 96
One of my favorite offenses that everyone is sleeping on this year is the Carolina Panthers. With a healthy Cam Newton and another year at receiver Samuel is in for a breakout season this year. I don't think there has been another receiver that has generated more buzz than Samuel this season from reporters. Hopefully no one will be sleeping on him this year as you should get him in all drafts at his current ADP.
Grade= B
This grade was likely to be a lot better had Cam Newton not missed the majority of the season. He slightly outperformed his ADP in his second season, and has a bunch of potential.
Matt Breida- Pre-Draft RB #39 ADP 110
It is always good to have Kyle Shanahan running backs on your fantasy teams. With the setback to Jerrick McKinnon, it looks to be Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida leading this 49ers rushing attack. He is an excellent pass catcher that has three down ability should something happen to Coleman and is someone that I must have in all drafts.
Grade= N/A
Injuries crippled this entire backfield, although each had their moments throughout the season. One of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, Breida could not stay healthy and take advantage of his situation.
Corey Davis- Pre-Draft WR #38 ADP 93
The leading returning receiver for the Titans is Corey Davis. If Davis can get just mediocre quarterback play from Mariotta or Tannehill he will smash his current ADP as he is one of the more talented young receivers in this league. Unfortunately for him, I am not a fan of the new OC and or quarterbacks that he gets to play with, he is worth the flier this late in drafts though and is someone you should not sleep on.
Grade= F
An extremely disappointing season for Corey Davis, as AJ Brown took over as the clear-cut #1 receiver on this Titans team. Davis managed just 43 catches on 69 targets. I simply got Corey Davis wrong as I was a fan of his talent coming out of college and thought he would have success in this league.
Other Sleepers-
Jared Cook, Sterling Shepard, Darrell Henderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Gallup, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate,
Oher Sleeper Grades =
Darrell Henderson = Grade F RB #96
