Grading Busts! (2019)
Now that the 2019 Fantasy Football season has concluded, let's grade my preseason bust projections! Below I have my original comments from my article written on Sept 4th 2019. The BOLD comments below will be the grade portion of this article. All rankings will be based on .5 per reception scoring. **All overall finishes exclude quarterbacks**
In order to be under consideration for Busts, you must have an ADP (Average Draft Position) inside the top 50. I will make a short list of others busts that fall outside that range.
Melvin Gordon - Pre-Draft RB #12 ADP 22
With Gordon likely sitting out for multiple games due to a contract dispute and the fact that I have Austin Ekeler as a top 12 RB this season it is no surprise to see him on my bust list this season.
Grade = A+
I tried to warn you! Melvin Gordon ended up holding out and missing the first four games of the season. While the holdout was one of the reasons I wanted to stay away from Gordon, it was the emergence of Austin Ekeler that I was betting on as he was the better fit in this offense. More on Ekeler later this week as he will be featured in the breakout and sleepers review. Gordon was a bust as he finished the season as the 25th best running and 40 spots lower than his ADP.
Antonio Brown - Pre-Draft WR #10 ADP 23
In two straight seasons, Browns yards per catch have dropped. Antonio Brown is now 31 years old and coming off of frost bite on his feet that sidelined him the entire offseason with his new team. His new quarterback averages 6.7 yards per attempt while his old one averaged 7.7 and was king of improvising with Brown throughout their careers together. I see a major meltdown coming once this team starts to lose and Brown doesn't get his this season.
Grade = A+
My biggest fade in all forms of fantasy football last season was Antonio Brown. The writing was on the wall that Brown was spiraling out of control as he forced himself out of Pittsburgh while having multiple off the field incidents. While I still believe he would have been a major bust with Carr as his quarterback, his mental breakdown solidified him as one of the biggest bust in fantasy history.
Damien Williams - Pre-Draft RB #22 ADP 24
Another rule of mine, do not draft a player that was picked up off the waiver wire inside the next four rounds of next years draft. Damien Williams has never had more than 50 carries in one season. He missed a lot of camp with a sore hamstring and has a bowling ball of a rookie breathing down his neck. My main concern here is health as he is in the best offensive fit for his position.
Grade = A+
Another massive whiff for the fantasy community was taking Damien Williams in the first couple rounds of your draft. While I do love running backs in an Andy Reid offense, Williams had massive red flags. I was not willing to use a pick before round 6 on a player that had never carried it more than 50 times in one of his five NFL seasons, while also battling a hamstring injury all preseason. To make matters worse for the Williams truthers, the Chiefs signed Shady McCoy a week before the season. You really hate to see it.
Phillip Lindsay - Pre-Draft RB #24 ADP 50
I do not see how Lindsay can reach his ADP in the current situation. Theo Riddick has been brought in to handle passing downs work while the organization has made it clear they want Freeman and Lindsay to get an equal share this season. One of the most efficient runners last season, Lindsay is due for regression in a major way making him a bust this season.
Grade = C
Our first miss of the season, as Phillip Lindsay paid off his ADP by 8 spots. It was clearly Lindsay's backfield, as he had 224 carries compared to Freeman's 132. With that kind of usage one could say that Lindsay underachieved, as he barely finished inside the top-20 at his position with over 250 touches. Even though he underperformed, Lindsay finished higher than he was drafted at his ADP making him a miss for the FFE this past season.
Brandin Cooks - Pre-Draft WR #19 ADP 37
Too many mouths to feed in this kitchen for Brandin Cooks this year. I would rather take Robert Woods who is likely to lead this team in targets and Cooper Kupp who has been a touchdown monster for this Rams offense. Cooks is likely the odd man out as I do not see him reaching his current ADP this season.
Grade = A+
Cooks was the odd man out at Receiver, after the Rams offense declined this past season. (Kupp #4 WR, Woods #16 WR). His inability to stay healthy and on the field was a reason for his decline but this offense also shifted to a much quicker passing game utilizing the middle of the field with Kupp, Woods and Higbee. Cooks was hardly a factor this past season making him one of the bigger busts in 2019.
Allen Robinson - Pre-Draft WR #21 ADP 47
With a career catch rate of 52.3% and a quarterback that only completed 59.4% of his throws, I want no part of Allen Robinson in the 4th to 5th round. He will have some monster games, but will need well over 135 targets to achieve his current ADP. I frankly would rather take a guy like Chris Hogan who will have Brady peppering him with targets than Robinson in this range.
Grade = D
The biggest miss for the FFE this past season was Allen Robinson. He was able to overcome horrendous quarterback play "main reason he was on this list" as he finished 25th overall and as the 11th best WR. With so few wide receivers reaching the 150 target mark, Robinson had the 3rd most last season with 154. In what was a down year for the position, he still performed better than I projected. He is likely to find himself back on this list with quarterback play still being a major question mark in 2020.
Alshon Jeffery - Pre-Draft WR #22 ADP 49
With the largest target share heading to Zach Ertz, Jeffery will continue to be touchdown dependent in order to achieve his ADP this season. The Eagles should be solid on defense and running more 12 personnel this season as Dallas Goedert emerges along with Miles Sanders in the running game.
Grade = A+
Not a lot of misses on this article, as the busts continue with Alshon Jeffery finishing as the 154th overall player last season. While Jeffery missed 6 games due to injury, he struggled to get open and produce in his 10 games (43 catches 490 yards 4 TDs) well below what was needed to payoff his ADP.
Overall Bust Grade- A+
With 5 of 7 players being massive busts and missing ADP by 40 or more spots, this was my most accurate season projecting busts. I only had one player out perform his ADP by 9 or more spots as Allen Robinson was a clear miss on my part.
Other Busts -
Tarik Cohen, Marvin jones, Jordan Howard David Njoku
Other Busts Grades = A as all other bust targets did not come close to reaching average ADP.
