2019 Team Previews - Miami Dolphins
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick RB: Kenyan Drake WR: DeVante Parker WR: Kenny Stills WR: Albert Wilson TE: Mike Gesicki
LT: Laremy Tunsil LG: Michael Deiter C: Daniel Kilgore RG: Jesse Davis RT: Jordan Mills
Miami Dolphins Offensive Profile 2016-2018 Pass Attempts Rank: 31st, 4th, 30th 2016-2018 Rush Attempts Rank: 18th, 32nd, 25th 2016-2018 Play Volume Rank: 32nd, 22nd, 32nd 2016-2018 Yards Per Play Rank: 7th, 22nd
Chad O'Shea's first season as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. (0 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
Quarterback- The Dolphins decided to move on from Ryan Tannehill and Adam Gase after another disappointing season in Miami. The new regime under Brian Flores will be lead on offense by former Patriot's receivers coach Chad O'Shea. With no previous play calling data, we will try to breakdown what type of offense we except this Dolphins attack to employ.
The Dolphins went out and traded for Josh Rosen this off-season. The former first round pick, did not fit the scheme change in Arizona making the trade all but a forgone conclusion leading up to the draft. With Rosen still a very raw prospect, the Dolphins signed veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick who will start this season while helping bring along the young Rosen.
With the majority of O'Shea's coaching career in New England it is likely that he will bring similar personnel fits and offensive concepts to the Dolphins.
Fantasy Outlook-
With the expectation that the Dolphins will be transitioning to Rosen at some point fairly early in the season, it really limits Ryan Fitzpatricks fantasy value. The better quarterback at this stage of their career's is clearly Fitzpatrick but the Dolphins are in no hurry to win this season and must find out what they have in Rosen. I do believe that this offense can be successful in the passing game with the speed that it has acquired, but it will need some quality quarterback play to reach that potential.
Wide Receiver-
The Dolphins have been waiting for the light to come on for fifth year receiver DeVante Parker. The talented former first round pick has struggled with his health and consistency so far in his NFL career. One thing is for certain, this receiving corps has a ton of speed in the slot, with receivers Albert Wilson (4.43 forty) and Jakeem Gram (4.42 forty). Along with Parker on the outside is veteran Kenny Stills (4.38 forty) who at times has demonstrated he can be an above average receiver in the league.
One receiver who I hope makes the team is former Tennessee Volunteer Preston Williams. He left the Vols "who could blame him" after not getting the playing time that he thought he deserved. Everyone is probably thinking well the head coach was probably right? That would be incorrect, Butch Jones has shown his ability to sit his best players. For those of you that forgot Butch Jones had Alvin Kamara behind now current 49er wide receiver Jalen Hurd throughout his career at Tennessee. At 6'5 218 pounds Williams is tall, long, and physical playmaker on the outside. He is a fairly polished route runner for his frame and attacks the ball in the air while being able to display excellent body control. He should get a lot of run this preseason, hopefully he can take advantage of his opportunity.
This is an athletic bunch that does have some upside, if they can get Fitzpatrick to match his play from last season in Tampa. In eight starts last season Fitzpatrick threw for 2,366 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Devante Parker has filled fantasy football sleeper and breakout articles since 2016, is this the year that it actually happens? I am still not sure, as I will be writing my breakout and sleeper column at the end of August and haven't yet decided. One thing is for certain, having a quarterback that has no qualms about throwing into tight coverage or deep down the field allowing his receivers to make plays only enhances his chances in doing so.
Fantasy Outlook-
The quarterback play will determine if any of these guys are fantasy relevant this season and with Josh Rosen being the likely starter after week 5 or 6, it really drowns any optimism.
Tight End-
One of the more athletic tight ends in the NFL is Mike Gesicki, at 6'6/245 (4.54 forty) and a ridiculous 41 1/2 inch vertical Gesicki is a play maker this Dolphins offense desperately needs. Unfortunately, he is also one of the worst blockers in the league, which has allowed Nick O'Leary to surpass him on the depth chart.
Fantasy Outlook-
With the current quarterback situation and the best pass catching tight end on the team not getting the majority of snaps the fantasy outlook is non-existent.
Running Back-
The Patriots running game is something that gives fantasy owners nightmares, I look for O'Shea to continue that theme down in Miami. While this will not be a three or sometimes four headed attack that New England typically does it will be a running back by committee approach. The one positive is that Kenyan Drake should fill that James White role and be one of the more targeted players on the team this season. The bad news is that he most likely will only see 100-150 carries as Kalen Ballage will handle the majority of the carries.
Kenyan Drake caught 53 of 73 passes for 477 yards and 5 touchdowns last season. The Patriots gave James White just 94 carries The Patriots targeted the same James White 123 times last season, Kenyan Drake is taking over James White's role in this offense. One of the more explosive backs in the league, Drake averaged 21 touches for 119 yards per game from weeks 13-17 in 2017, but never got the full workload last season with Frank Gore still on the roster. If O'Shea makes him the primary ball carrier and gives him a huge chunk of the passings down work, we would be looking at a top-15 running back this season.
Fantasy Outlook-
With an ADP of #56 I am passing on Drake this season as his ADP does not reflect his usage that O'Shea spoke about last week. With Ballage being the primary ball carrier, Drake's upside of 250+ touches went out the window. With a couple weeks till most drafts, a correction in the market is needed before I take Drake with any of my picks.
Kalen Ballage looks to be the primary ball-carrier for the Dolphins this season. At 6'2 231 pounds, Ballage will be able to handle the full workload that O'Shea wants to employ. Last season Ballage only rushed 36 times but did average 5.1 yards per carry. I would envision a 65%-35% split for Ballage and Drake carrying the football this season.
Fantasy Outlook-
With his current ADP of #120 he is still too low. His ADP was at #154 just a week ago when I started writing this article, with the news that he is likely to be the featured back it has and will continue to come down. He should get between 185-225 carries this season, while also being able to provide some value in the passing game as he is a very dependable back out of the backfield. Hopefully your drafts are soon or this price tag will drop too low for you to buy.
2019 Vegas Win Total The Dolphins’ Win Total opened at 5 (+110). Talent is a major issue in Miami and it seems they're going to try and acquire some in the near future with potentially the top pick in the draft. While everyone believes the Dolphins are taking for the first overall pick in next years draft, I think they will be more competitive than most think. The schedule is not awful as they get to play against the rest of the AFC East and the NFC East. I just do not see any possible way how you could bet the over for this team, but I also do not want to bet under the 5 wins as it is very doable with half a dozen games against some of the lowest power rated teams in the league.
