2020 Busts!
Updated: Sep 17, 2020
With draft season right around the corner, it's time to identify which players we want to steer clear of and which ones we want to target.
I will be using the .5PPR scoring rankings from Fantasy Pros instead of my rankings, as it gives the current (Avg Draft Pos) for all sites that are currently drafting. You might disagree with the players listed, but these are players that I will plan to avoid because their ADP is too high / in for a bad year with changes etc.
In order to be under consideration for Busts you must have an ADP (Average Draft Position) inside the top 75. I will make a short list of others busts that fall outside that range.
Busts -
The Raiders are currently projected to win 7.5 games and the books have seen money come in on the under from pro bettors. While I love Josh Jacobs running style and usage as a ball carrier, he simply is not utilized enough in the passing game to pay-off his current ADP. The Raiders resigned Jalen Richard and drafted another pass-catching running back / receiver in Lynn Bowden, making me not believe that he gets more usage in the passing game this season. I will pass on Jacobs in all PPR style formats, he is only an option in standard scoring leagues.
REMOVED- Sept 5th as multiple pass catchers were cut and or traded further alleviating his lack of usage in passing game.
All three previous bell-cow running backs find themselves on new teams. All three have major injury concerns, Gordon and Gurley have degenerative knee conditions while Johnson simply hasn't been able to stay healthy in several years. While I do think they will all see enough volume to produce as an RB2/3, there ceilings are much lower than the stud receivers that you can take in this range. If I am going to take one of these backs it would be Johnson as he has the latest ADP of the trio but I am likely fading all three this season.
Lev Bell went Back to Back, as he finds himself on this article once again! Adam Gase and him clearly don't see eye-to-eye and he finds every possible chance he gets to trash him to the media.
Gase then went out and signed every coaches favorite running back in Frank Gore. I don't know what other warning signs you need to see but this is likely a 55-45 share and a horrific take inside the top-60. The offense will again be bad and the coaching doesn't get much worse. FADE HIM PLEASE
I had Leonard Fournette as my cover boy for this article till he went ahead and got himself cut from the Jaguars. I mainly left him up here because all the truthers continued to spew nonsense how he would have a major workload as both a pass catcher and runner. The minute the Jaguars hired Jay Gruden Uncle Lenny's targets dropped to about 30, as Chris Thompson was going to see all third-down work.
He is free falling in drafts and will probably become a value by the time you have your draft as he is now in a very good offense and will have a ton of opportunities to score while also seeing decent volume as a pass-catcher.
The term regression was made for Mark Ingram's 2020 season. He caught five touchdowns on 26 freaking receptions last season (19%). He also rushed for 10 touchdowns on just 202 carries.
Oh and the Ravens went out and drafted J.K. Dobbins in the 2nd round and Mark Ingram is on the final year of his deal. I want no part of Ingram even though this rushing offense is so so so good. It is laughable that he is going anywhere before pick 80 and even more so that he is going ahead of a 21 year old freak in JK Dobbins.
Two reasons - Drew Lock
I love his game but simply cannot spend a 4th round pick on a guy that has one of the worst quarterbacks in the league throwing to him. Rounds 2-7 are LOADED with receivers and I would much prefer taking a player with an elite QB instead. Another negative is that Sutton should see competition for targets as Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are all very talented pass catchers.
With Phillip Rivers checking down to Paris Campbell now instead of Keenan Allen, I will be fading one of the best route runners in the league. The Chargers have a lot of weapons at the disposal of Tyrod Taylor, which will limit his touches. I just do not see the 135+ target share that Allen needs to reach his value at 49. Another receiver that is goes 2 to 3 rounds too soon this season.
Kyle Shanahan loves Tevin Coleman and because of that we cannot love Raheem Mostert. While you want the lead back in this fantastic rushing offense, like Jacobs Raheem Mostert is not utilized at all in the passing game. The majority of his production came when Tevin Coleman was banged up weeks 12 on. This is likely an RBBC or hot hand approach in 2020.
I also have a hard time drafting a player in the top-6 rounds, when they have historically been a journeymen type player.
The volume would have been there and he would not have made the list if he did not pull his groin last week in practice. If you go Zero RB, I would get taking a volume approach here in the 6th or 7th round with Montgomery. Unfortunately I believe his injury will linger and I prefer to take his teammate Tarik Cohen if I am taking a Bears running back.
You know how I feel about Zack Moss, as he made the breakout column yesterday.
While I actually really like Singletary's game, it is clear the coaching staff does not. The coaching staff has said they want to get him out on the edge and in space while Moss handles the load between the tackles. I can't take a running back that gets removed from the goal-line, unless he were to see a ton of volume on third down. It appears the third down work will also be split, which makes Singletary a fade at an ADP of 61.
Other Busts -
Jordan Howard - RB # 31 ADP #88
