2019 Busts!

With draft season right around the corner, it's time to identify which players we want to steer clear of and which ones we want to target.

I will be using the .5PPR scoring rankings from Fantasy Pros instead of my rankings, as it gives the current (Avg Draft Pos) for all sites that are currently drafting. You might disagree with the players listed, but these are players that I will plan to avoid because their ADP is too high / in for a bad year with changes etc.

In order to be under consideration for Busts you must have an ADP (Average Draft Position) inside the top 50. I will make a short list of others busts that fall outside that range.

Melvin Gordon - RB #12 ADP 22

With Gordon likely sitting out for multiple games due to a contract dispute and the fact that I have Austin Ekeler as a top 12 RB this season it is no surprise to see him on my bust list this season.

Antonio Brown - WR #10 ADP 23

In two straight seasons, Browns yards per catch have dropped. Antonio Brown is now 31 years old and coming off of frost bite on his feet that sidelined him the entire offseason with his new team. His new quarterback averages 6.7 yards per attempt while his old one averaged 7.7 and was king of improvising with Brown throughout their careers together. I see a major meltdown coming once this team starts to lose and Brown doesn't get his this season.

Damien Williams - RB #22 ADP 24

Another rule of mine, do not draft a player that was picked up off the waiver wire inside the next four rounds of next years draft. Damien Williams has never had more than 50 carries in one season. He missed a lot of camp with a sore hamstring and has a bowling ball of a rookie breathing down his neck. My main concern here is health as he is in the best offensive fit for his position.

Brandin Cooks - WR #19 ADP 37

Too many mouths to feed in this kitchen for Brandin Cooks this year. I would rather take Robert Woods who is likely to lead this team in targets and Cooper Kupp who has been a touchdown monster for this Rams offense. Cooks is likely the odd man out as I do not see him reaching his current ADP this season.

Allen Robinson - WR #21 ADP 47

With a career catch rate of 52.3% and a quarterback that only completed 59.4% of his throws, I want no part of Allen Robinson in the 4th to 5th round. He will have some monster games, but will need well over 135 targets to achieve his current ADP. I frankly would rather take a guy like Chris Hogan who will have Brady peppering him with targets than Robinson in this range.

Alshon Jeffery - WR #22 ADP 49

With the largest target share heading to Zach Ertz, Jeffery will continue to be touchdown dependent in order to achieve his ADP this season. The Eagles should be solid on defense and running more 12 personnel this season as Dallas Goedert emerges along with Miles Sanders in the running game.

Phillip Lindsay - RB #24 ADP 50

I do not see how Lindsay can reach his ADP in the current situation. Theo Riddick has been brought in to handle passing downs work while the organization has made it clear they want Freeman and Lindsay to get an equal share this season. One of the most efficient runners last season, Lindsay is due for regression in a major way making him a bust this season.

Other Busts -

Tarik Cohen, Marvin jones, Jordan Howard David Njoku