2020 Breakouts & Bounce Backs
With draft season right around the corner, it's time to identify which players we want to steer clear of and which ones we want to target.
I will be using the .5PPR scoring rankings from Fantasy Pros instead of my rankings, as it gives the current (Avg Draft Pos) for all sites that are currently drafting. This list will contain the rookies that I expect to have a big impacts along with other players that are ready to have breakout performances in 2020. "Trying to focus on those outside the top-35 in ADP.
Breakouts -
The rookie out of LSU steps into one of the best situations as he will lead this Chiefs rushing attack. Since 1999 all but ONE of Andy Reid's lead running backs has finished inside the top-25 (#8 RB Avg). I am expecting big things from CEH, as he should lead this team in every statistical category at his position.
The only Rookie running backs in the last 30 years with at least 1500 all purpose yards, at least 4.5 ypc, at least 7.5 ypa and 200+ return yards.
Miles Sanders, Alvin Kamara and Adrian Peterson... End of List
With Jordan Howard and his 13.3 touches a game in Miami, Miles Sanders workload looks to get a major increase. If you want to see what type of production you will be getting with Howard gone, look at the final six games last season. With Howard out, Sanders averaged 19.6 touches per game and 16.7 fantasy points. The Eagles should have one of the more potent offenses this season and Sanders looks poised to capitalize.
You can go with several different breakout options here (Kenny Golladay, Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr, D.J. Moore, and so on. I felt that those players have already technically had breakout years before so did not include them. A.J. Brown was a statistical anomaly last season finishing as the WR15 even though he didn't see 60% of snaps / start till Week 10!
While it's not sustainable to average 20.2 yards per reception, he can still be on the top end of the receiver spectrum (Tyreek Hill). So while all other fantasy analyst say pump the brakes on Brown, I think it's a buying opportunity for one of the most explosive players in the league that should see a large target increase.
A lot of similarities to my favorite sleeper last year Chris Godwin. Massive target share increase with departed targets (Humphries for Godwin, Sanu / Hooper for Ridley). One of the best route runners coming out of college, Ridley looks poised to finally be fully released in what should be the pass happiest team in the league.
In his eight games that he saw at least 8 or more targets he caught a touchdown in all but 1 and never had less than 70 yards receiving. The third year pro out of Alabama is going to payoff his former 1st round selection in a big way. I think his floor is 110 targets and another season with 7+ touchdowns.
I feel as though he has already broken out and that his ADP is actually right on point. But I honestly think he has true TE1 upside this season and is someone that had to be included in this article.
Another range that could have included the likes of (Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Chark, D.K. Metcalf) I choose to go with McLaurin who erupted onto the scene last season with 5 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles.
The Redskins lost Kelvin Harmon to an ACL and bring back no other quality receivers outside of 2nd year speedster Steven Simms. Sounds like Terry McLaurin is in for a massive target share for a team that is predicted to only win 4-5 games and forced to throw from behind. A great recipe for another breakout wide receiver in the 4th / 5th round.
With the release of Todd Gurley the Rams have 49 targets and 223 rush attempts vacated. Darrell Henderson has missed a ton of camp with a lower-body injury and Malcom Brown has shown nothing more than being a competent backup. In the 52 games Sean McVay has coached for the Rams, his RB1 has played at least 60% of snaps in 48 of those games. I am willing to take the rookie out of Florida State at his current ADP in hopes that he becomes the bell-cow that McVay wants to operate his offense with.
With an off-season to get his foot fully healthy, Marquise Brown is poised for a breakout role in this potent Ravens offense. With Mark Andrews being the focal point of this passing attack in the middle of the field, Brown should lead the team in targets on the outside. With his game-breaking ability (7 touchdowns on 46 receptions) Brown is someone I am willing to take a chance on at his current ADP. If he can stay healthy he has top-10 WR upside.
Speaking of staying healthy, Will Fuller looks to smash his current ADP if he can do so. We have seen the flashes with his 14 catches for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Falcons last season. He now has the chance to be the WR1after DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Cardinals and I expect him to capitalize.
If you read the Quarterback preview, you know how much I believe in this Ravens offense. Since I am fading Mark Ingram, I am surely buying the rookie J.K. Dobbins. He is by far the superior athlete at this point of their careers and has massive upside if he becomes the bell-cow in this offense. He has a lot of ability not only as a runner but also as a pass-catcher, look for Dobbins workload to increase as the season goes along.
One thing is for certain, the Pittsburgh Steelers scouting department knows how to draft receivers (Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, JuJu Smith Schuster).
With Ben Roethlisberger returning, Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson become viable top-25 WRs. In a year in which he caught passes from a guy named Duck and Mason Rudolph, Johnson was able to average 11.5 yards per reception and 5 touchdowns. Not a bad rookie season for a kid out of Toledo, now we get to see what he can do with a future Hall of Famer at quarterback.
Last season the Buffalo Bills gave a (58 year-old) Frank Gore 166 carries and the majority of the goal-line work as they slowly brought along rookie Devin Singletary. With Frank Gore gone, the Bills went out and upgraded the position with a powerful 5'9 223 back to takeover that Gore role. Zack Moss might just do more than that as rumors continue to swirl that Singletary has struggled holding onto the football in camp. While this will likely be a RBBC approach, Moss has the higher upside as he is going to get the high valued touches around the goal-line and could eventually become the lead back. Not to mention he is going about 40 spots lower in drafts.
Since they drafted Gibson, Scott Turner has gushed about how the rookie out of Memphis fits his offensive scheme. With the release of Darius Guice and Bryce Love still banged up, Adrian Peterson is the only thing between Gibson and a massive rocket ship to to a top-25 RB. He is going far too late in drafts, as this team is likely going to be trailing often only increasing his fantasy production.
Frankly I am waiting on TE if I do not get one of the top-3. I do not trust the health of Hunter Henry and Evan Engram nor do I want some of the "higher rated" guys. I am perfectly happy taking my TE at the end of my drafts after I have stacked my roster.
With Matthew Stafford healthy, this Lions offense has a chance to be sneaky good as he was an MVP candidate before his injury in week 8 last season. They have upgraded the running game and Hockenson is so difficult for slot corners or safety's to cover with his size and athleticism.
In the 8 games with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams lead the team in targets in six-of-eight. Williams is also going almost 100 picks after Parker. Talk about value, this is the Dolphins WR that I want.
The only concern for Jarwin is lack of targets, as this Cowboys offense is loaded. With Jason Witten and Randall Cobb gone, I am expecting Jarwin to become Dak's security blanket underneath and is someone that is pretty much free in drafts.
Another late TE target that I am more than happy with is Chris Herndon. The only rookie TEs to average at least 8 yards per target since 2000 (min 50) Mark Andrews 11, Gronk 9.3, Henry 9, Herndon 9. Not bad company to be in for a guy that could not get on the field last season due to injury.
I am looking for a bounce back in year three as this Jets defense is going to be awful with the trade of Jamaal Adams and other opt outs. The entire Jets receiving corp has been decimated by injury this summer, leaving Crowder and Herndon as the two main focal points in this passing attack.
Sony Michel has had knee issues since he was a Freshman at Georgia. He had a procedure this off-season and has lacked burst since arriving in New England. The Patriots signed Cam Newton in what should be a complete makeover on offense. This should be one of the run heaviest team in the league and Damian Harris has shined throughout camp this off-season. However, he had surgery on his pinky this past week and is now likely to miss the opener. Unfortunately Sony Michel returned this week after missing all of camp after ankle surgery. I am still buying Harris at his ADP as he could see over 200 carries in a very prolific rushing attack in 2020.
After a banged up rookie season, Campbell looks poised for a big year in the slot for Phillip Rivers and this Colts offense. He has big yards after catch ability and operated at an 8.1 (aDOT) when on the field. While Hilton is going to lead this WR group in targets, Campbell will be relied upon heavily underneath which is where Rivers likes to operate.
Bounce Backs -
James Conner - ADP #46
Robert Woods - ADP #55
Zach Ertz - ADP #50
Stefon Diggs - ADP #58
T.Y. Hilton - ADP #61
A.J. Green - ADP #63
Marvin Jones - ADP #88
