2017 Breakouts and Sleepers!
With draft season right around the corner, it's time to identify which players we want to steer clear of and which ones we want to target.
I will be using the .5PPR scoring rankings from Fantasy Pros instead of my rankings, as it gives the current (Avg Draft Pos) for all sites that are currently drafting. This list will contain the rookies that I expect to have a big impact along with the other players that are on the verge of having great seasons. We will go with players not in the top 30 ADP unless they're a rookie.
Breakouts -
Running Back Rookies - This might be the best RB class in the last decade plus. The top five will all have breakout years assuming they stay healthy. If they do stay healthy all four will finish as top 12 RBs this year. Outlook - Hunt, Fournette, Cook, Mixon, McCaffrey, Rounds 2-4 TAKE.
After those 4, Perine, Williams all look poised to take over starting roles and breakout as well.
Terrelle Pryor - WR #15 ADP 34
6'5 4.4 speed and a QB that is going to throw for over 4500 yards, sign me up. He should have lots of volume (120+ targets) and provides a nice big target in the Red-Zone to gobble up 8+ TDs.
I would be shocked if he did not end up in the top #16 at his position. Outlook - Round 3/4
Martavis Bryant - WR #25 ADP 56
He is the definition of a breakout. In only 21 yes 21 NFL games he has 14 TDs. 6'4 with blazing speed and a HOF QB that loves to chuck it deep is a recipe for WR1 potential. The only issue is that he has the best WR and RB in the game, taking away massive amounts of targets. I still believe he has high WR2 upside and could easily finish with 70+ catches and double digit TDs and 1200+ yards.
Bilal Powell - RB #25 ADP 63
Not ideal taking any Jet player in fantasy football, but good news for Powell is that they will be down a ton every week and he will get Bortles (garbage) yards weekly. As a starter in the final 4 games last year he averaged 20.5 carries and 103 yards on the ground. In addition he caught 5 balls a game for another 130 yards. You're getting great value at his current draft position. Outlook - Round 5/6
Jamison Crowder - WR #30 ADP 82
Two Redskins on this list?? They must of had some guys leave in free agency. Ahh yes about 216 targets worth. I love his game, as it fits the NFL slot receiver so well. He is a phenomenal route runner, has above average hands, that can get in and out of cuts quickly. He also has the trust and love of his QB, Kirk or Kurt ask Bruce Allen maybe he knows. While he might see some TD regression this year, his targets will increase as should his yards per catch. Outlook - Round 6/7
Stefon Diggs - WR #31 ADP 69
Look another if he can stay healthy type player. With Sam "I can't and won't throw it more than 12 yards" Bradford at the helm, Diggs looks poised for 130+ targets should he stay healthy. I love this kids game, shame he wasted his college career in College Park. He will be the most heavily targeted player on his team and consistently makes plays when he is involved. Unfortunately he has a average ceiling but is a very consistent WR3. Outlook - Round 7/8
Willie Snead - WR #32 ADP 80
Bye bye 120+ targets and Brandin Cooks and hello value town Willie Snead. Do I want a #2 WR that plays for the 3rd best QB in the best pass offense in the league?? Yes I would and his name is Willie Snead, as he is poised for a major breakout season. Really anyone with a pulse would break out in his situation, but he also happens to be talented. TDs, Targets, Yards is what you get when you play in NOLA and are the #2 WR so buy as much as you can at his value. Outlook - 7/8
Devante Parker - WR #36 ADP 97
Yep, he made the list for a second consecutive season. After a disappointing season last year he looks poised to breakout in his 3rd NFL season. No one has been talked about in a more positive way this offseason than Parker. He has changed his diet, body and mind and has been dominating all offseason. We heard similar chatter last year but this year will be different for one main reason. Jay Cutler, he will look his way early and often and put him in the top 5 for most targeted red-zone players. He has tremendous upside and can even crack the top 10 this year.
Kareem Hunt - RB #34 ADP 92
With the injury to Spencer Ware, Hunt's draft value has skyrocketed. Most likely by the time you're reading this he will not longer be great value but should showcase his skills and be extremely productive in his rookie year. Andy Reid is a one RB kind of guy and you can expect Hunt to get well over 200 carries and 40+ catches with 10+ TDs. He will finish this year as a top 10 RB.
Zach Ertz - TE #9 ADP 96
Baby Gronk looks poised for a huge year in Philadelphia. With the trade of Jordan Matthews the middle of the field will be all Ertz this year. When he is heavily featured at the end of each year he produces (31 Catches 364 Yards) in the final 4 games. Hopefully the coaches noticed as well and utilize him from weeks 1-13 not just 14-17 Outlook - Round 10
Hunter Henry - TE #11 ADP 103
Unfortunately Gates did not retire as he still looks for his 1 TD to surpass Gonzalez all time record. Henry is one of the most talented TE to come out of the draft in the last decade. He already has the trust of Rivers in the red-zone as he accounted for 8 TDs as a rookie. If they can just roll Gates into that retirement home by week 3 or 4 he will be one of the best values this season. It looks as though he will be held back by Gates and additional weapons but he still looks poised to breakout. Enjoy drafting him after round 9 this year because next year it will cost you a top 35 pick.
Robby Anderson - WR# 57 ADP 180
Thanks to the injury to Enunwa, Robby Anderson is now poised for a breakout. As you have learned it is all about Volume and Anderson will see a ton of it on a god awful Jets team. Only 3 players had over 120 targets last year and did not end up inside the top 35 at WR. With Anderson not even being drafted he is great value as he is going to end up in the top 40 with potential in the 20s. Outlook - Un-drafted Last Pick take.
Sleepers -
Kennan Allen WR #19 ADP 41
He has been riddled with injuries throughout his career so we will label him a sleeper this year. This is Rivers favorite WR target since he got into the league. He is someone that will be targeted well over 130 times if he plays a full season. He was on pace for 134 catches out of 178 targets in 2015 with 8 TDs. While there are a ton of weapons in LA this year he should put up very solid WR2 numbers with WR1 potential. Outlook - Round 4
Kelvin Benjamin - WR #29 ADP 57
He broke out as a rookie and then disappeared figuratively clearly not literally last year. He seems to of gotten rid of the bad weight and looks poised for a solid season. He has top 15 potential but with an inaccurate QB it makes it hard for him to reach his full potential. He will for sure outperform his WR29 value but will need 120+ targets and a more accurate Cam to get him into the top 15. Outlook - Round 6/7
Brandon Marshall - WR #32 ADP 68
One of the most consistent players in fantasy football over the last decade. Last year's poor numbers were a result of putrid QB play. His move to NY will add a couple extra solid years of production to his career. Manning will look his way often in the red-zone which increases his value a ton. He is one of the best red-zone threats in the last decade and with over 120+ targets coming his way, it is back to fantasy relevance for Marshall. Outlook - Round 7
Doug Martin - RB #30 ADP 71
I have had great success with Doug over his career, as he is what we will call a motivation player. I draft him when he is motivated via contract, rookie proving grounds or in this case a prove it season coming off a suspension. He will miss 3 games this year which takes him out of top 15, but he will be near the top for avg pts a game. He is coming into the season healthy and in great shape. One of the better value players in the draft this year, he will be on a ton of my teams.
Jeremy Maclin - WR #37 ADP 98
After an injury plagued season Maclin has a fresh scenery for the 2017 season. The Ravens have finished in the top 5 in passing attempts the last 3 seasons. With only Mike Wallace as competition for these targets, I look for Maclin to get back to his 85+ 1100+ type production.
Jonathan Stewart - RB #38 ADP 99
McCaffrey is a slasher that will be lined up all over the field which leads us to our next sleeper J Stew. He will get the volume of a RB1 and will be heavily featured around the goal-line. 215+ carries and 6-10 TDs and you just found yourself a diamond in the rough. He is tremendous value falling after round 10 in most drafts.
I could go on for days but some additional names you want to keep an eye on.
Corey Coleman, John Brown, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, Jamaal Williams, Austin Hooper, Gio Bernard, Tyler Lockett, Alvin Kamara, Kenny Golladay,
