Bust Grades!
Now that the 2017 Fantasy Football season has concluded, let's grade my preseason bust projections! Below I have my original comments from my article written on Aug 24th 2017. The BOLD comments will be the grade portion of this article. All rankings will be based on .5 per reception scoring.
Jay Ajayi - RB #7 ADP 15
It is safe to say that Jay Ajayi finishing as the 37th overall running back nails my preseason bust projection. He could not get anything going in the dolphins run game and was shipped out of town right before the conclusion of the trade deadline. While he has shown flashes in his NFL career, it truly was a disappointing season for Ajayi. In addition to that, his backup flourished as the starter in Miami as Drake was one of the best backs the second half of the season.
Grade = A+
He is too inconsistent to be on my team in the first 30 picks. He should get a lot of volume and does have a great OC/HC in Gase, but he goes only as Mike Pouncey at Center goes. Unfortunately for the both of them, Pouncey can never stay healthy. He failed to rush for more than 42 yards in the first 4 without him. With Pouncey he ran for 204,211,111,79,77. Once sidelined for the year he failed to rush for more than 61 yards weeks 10-15. He did have a huge day against a NE team that clinched in week 16 but I am going with the overall body of work.
Marshawn Lynch RB #14 ADP 35
With Lynch finishing as the 19th overall running back, I feel as though it is safe to say that he was another bust. I mentioned earlier that he will be a very boom or bust type player. He had 8 games over 10 points but never went over 20 in a game, while having 4 games under 6 points. Far too inconsistent for a top 50 player and he did not meet expectations based on where he was drafted in the first 4 rounds. His production was especially poor in the first half of the season, which probably lead to several losses early on in the fantasy football season.
Grade = B+
This has bust written all over it. I am going to question the desire of a player that retired for one year, then answers that he did not miss the game at all when asked by a reporter. He is 31 years old, was injury plagued his last couple of seasons and didn't produce during those. I just do not want that kind of player in the 3rd round. He does have a great offensive line and will get a lot of goal-line work that could save his season. So while he doesn't fall off like Blount (more on him in a moment) he will be more of a boom / bust type player this season. If you can get round 5 or later, you will be happy with his production.
Jarvis Landry WR #24 ADP 42
Well I could not have been more wrong than I was with Landry. He still continued to see tons of volume and his production was fantastic. He finished as the 8th overall WR and pretty much did what I expected D. Parker to do. He is truly one of the best possession WRs in the NFL and the QB change did not decease his production like I thought it would. To make matters worse he actually found the end-zone more times than any other season in his career.
Grade = F
The injury to Ryan Tannehill cost Jarvis millions. His check down buddy couldn't of been injured during a more costly time for Jarvis as he is in the final year of his deal. He now gets the cig smoking, gun slinging, god awful Jay Cutler. Fantastic news for the tall and fast D. Parker but awful for the short average speed 8-11 yard route running Landry. You would be out of your mind taking him in the first 4 rounds. I would expect his targets, catches, yards, TDs to all drop 10% at the min this year. He is a solid 3rd WR, but plenty others with far greater upside.
Outlook - Round 7 or later.
Ty Montgomery RB #18 ADP 43
Thankfully after failing miserably with Landry, TY Montgomery gets me back on track. I think it is fair to say, my comments below were spot on and I could not have predicted his seasonal outcome any better. I also believe his time has come to an end as the Packers primary ball carrier. It seems those rookies who took over for him will continue to carry the load next year.
Grade = A+
Shocking as it might be, but I have no interest in a WR playing RB that is currently injured. He never carried it more than 16 times in a game and I don't see how he can hold up for a full season. I would be stunned if he averaged more than 12 carries a game which makes him impossible to take as a RB #2. He does bring value in PPR as he will be heavily involved in the passing game. Also another RB that will be looking over his back as a Rookie could easily take his job.
LeGarrette Blount RB#34 ADP 86
Good thing his ADP dropped like a rock right before the draft, because he STILL didn't reach his ADP. Blount finished as the 47th overall running back. He had 11 games in which he scored less than 8 fantasy points. His final 9 games he did not produce a single game over 7.7 points. To make matters worse, he was on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL and could not deliver. With the trade for Ajayi and his lack of production, I would be stunned if he was on a roster come next fall.
Grade = A+
Well it appears his ADP dropped like that dude he hit after the Boise St game. When I started to ponder who I wanted to write about, he was the first person that came to mind. This ADP freefall is a good thing, as he is one of the least talented players in the NFL. He is extremely slow and overweight. Sorry you do not have Tom to make you look 1000x better than you're this year. No more short goal-line plunges to boost your stats, and 5-6 man fronts to run against. If you want to see how he will perform, take a look at his game tape in Pit before he was cut and shipped back to NE. He is simply not on my draft board, I do not care what round it is. A great RB situation was ruined by a terrible acquisition by the Eagles, thanks a lot.
Now let's take a look at other players that I will avoid because of the awful QB situation that they are stuck with.
Demaryius Thomas - WR #14 ADP 29
Well I almost gave Demaryius too much credit as he finished as the 20th best WR this year. He is a good player, but in an extremely unfortunate situation. He was off of my draft board with Paxton, Trevor and Brock as his QBs. Hopefully everyone stayed away from DT this year. Could the addition of a Manning or Cousins this offseason see him as a rebound candidate in 2018? We will find out next summer ;)
Grade = A+
He will get a ton of volume and finish as a top 20 WR but for a guy talented enough to be in the top 5 his QB will cap his ceiling. Outlook - Round 5 or later
Alshon Jeffery WR #17 ADP 36
This is the most difficult player to grade. While he did finish around the projected slot at his position, but he was way under the production you seek when taking him within the first 40 selections. Alshon finished as the 18th overall WR in a very down year for pass catchers. He had 8 games with 7.7 points or less. He was extremely inconsistent and was not even the best WR on his own team. While his production was well short of his ADP he did finish as a top 20 WR.
Grade = C+
Talent and QB are not the problem here. He has never been able to stay healthy and already has missed a lot of the pre-season this year. Outlook - Round 4 or later
Allen Robinson WR #18 ADP 38
TORN ACL WEEK 1
GRADE = N/A
You poor man. No one should ever have to catch passes from Blake Bortles, who I was correct about even though everyone argued with me during his huge garbage time #s year. Give him Justin Worley and he's a top 12 WR "Slightly Kidding" Outlook - Do not want, I would quit if I was Allen Round 5 or later
Sammy Watkins WR #23 ADP 51
Watkins was put into a great situation, with one of my favorite young coaches. His mental aptitude is and will be the only thing that keeps him from flourishing in LA. He finished as the 38th overall WR, while his two teammates finished ahead of him. I would have given myself an A+ but I even took the bait in the 7th round. His skillset is one of the best at his position but till he learns the offense he will continue to disappoint. He did finish the season with 5 of his last 8 games over 10+ fantasy points, largely due to TDs as he still was not heavily targeted. If he can learn the system and gain the trust of his head coach and QB, the sky really is the limit.
Grade = A
This was his year. I had him projected as the 10th best WR. Then he was shipped off to the worst 1st overall QB selection in NFL history. I do think he has one of the best offensive minds as his coach, which hopefully leads to some better play out of Goff, but his drop reflects his new home. Outlook - Round 6 or later
Spencer Ware
Reid loves to use 1 and only 1 RB as his bell cow. With the talented and highly drafted Kareem Hunt, Ware had better produce early or he will see the bench instead of the end-zone. He is one of many RBs that have a talented rookie looking to take their starting role. Outlook - Handcuff
TORN ACL PRESEASON
GRADE = N/A
Robert Kelley RB #36 ADP 100
I think it is safe to say that having only 1 game over 8 points means you were a major bust. He was injured and put on IR week 11, but was not productive at any point in the season.
Grade A+
This looks to be worse than the KC situation. I believe it is when and not if that S. Perine takes over the starting role here. Both should get a decent amount of work but something to keep your eye on.
Overall Grade B+
I will give myself a B+ for Busts this year, as I hit on 8 of the 9 busts. Obviously missing on Landry was a massive miss, but all other players missed projections by a wide margin or did not perform up to their ADP. Hopefully we will not have any F's next year and this continues to help avoid landmines for the 2018 season.
DeBuch
