Grading Breakouts & Sleepers!
It's a Friday and everyone needs an article to kill the last 30 or so minutes of the work week! Below you will see my grades on both breakouts and sleepers for the 2017 season. The BOLD items will be the breakdown of how the year played out. The original comments made last august will be above the BOLD breakdown. Enjoy!
Breakouts -
Running Back Rookies - This might be the best RB class in the last decade plus. The top five will all have monster years assuming they stay healthy. If they do stay healthy four will finish as top 12 RBs this year. Outlook - Hunt, Fournette, Cook, Mixon, McCaffrey, Rounds 2-4 TAKE.
After those 4, Kamara, Perine, Williams, all look poised to take over starting roles and produce as well.
Grade = A+
With four rookies finishing inside the top 11 overall, it was clearly a great year for rookie RBs. Hunt lead the league in rushing and finished 4th overall. The rookie sensation Alvin Kamara exploded and finished 3rd overall, once Peterson was put out to pasture. Fournette and McCaffrey finished very productive rookie seasons as well. If Dalvin Cook stayed healthy, he would have finished in the top 10 after a very productive first 4 games of the season. The rookies lived up to the hype and we can expect this results to continue over the next 6+ years.
Terrelle Pryor - WR #15 ADP 34
6'5 4.4 speed and a QB that is going to throw for over 4500 yards, sign me up. He should have lots of volume (120+ targets) and provides a nice big target in the Red-Zone to gobble up 8+ TDs.
I would be shocked if he did not end up in the top #16 at his position. Outlook - Round 3/4
Grade = F
While Pryor did end up on injured reserve, he was a massive bust for most in the fantasy industry. He never looked in sync with Cousins and did not get the volume that most projected. He is still very raw at the position and needs to spend the entire off-season with a jugs machine along with continuing his progression of his route tree.
Martavis Bryant - WR #25 ADP 56
He is the definition of a breakout. In only 21 yes 21 NFL games he has 14 TDs. 6'4 with blazing speed and a HOF QB that loves to chuck it deep is a recipe for WR1 potential. The only issue is that he has the best WR and RB in the game, taking away massive amounts of targets. I still believe he has high WR2 upside and could easily finish with 70+ catches and double digit TDs and 1200+ yards.
Grade = D
Someone decided to be a diva and worked himself deep into the dog house for most of the season. While he did finish the last 6 games of the season averaging 9.3 Points her game, he never got on the same page with Big Ben and was a headache for his team all season. He has been passed by rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster and is another Clemson product that will not live up to his god given talents. A change in scenery might benefit the super talented Bryant, but till he gets the mental aspect of the NFL he will continue to disappoint.
Bilal Powell - RB #25 ADP 63
Not ideal taking any Jet player in fantasy football, but good news for Powell is that they will be down a ton every week and he will get Bortles (garbage) yards weekly. As a starter in the final 4 games last year he averaged 20.5 carries and 103 yards on the ground. In addition he caught 5 balls a game for another 130 yards. You're getting great value at his current draft position. Outlook - Round 5/6
Grade = C+
Hear me out. When he was given 15+ touches in games this season "which only happened 4 times" he had 9.7 Pts, 27 Pts, 12 Pts, and 20.5 fantasy points. I am sorry that the coaching staff is full of incompetent idiots. Billy Powell has proven one thing over the last two seasons. If you give him volume he produces at a pretty damn high level. An average of 17.3 would finish well inside the top 5. While I obviously don't think he would keep that average up, I do think he would have averaged in the 11-12 points per game, and finished inside the top 20. Hopefully he gets a change of scenery and or they walk Forte into the retirement this off-season.
Jamison Crowder - WR #30 ADP 82
Two Redskins on this list?? They must of had some guys leave in free agency. Ahh yes about 216 targets worth. I love his game, as it fits the NFL slot receiver so well. He is a phenomenal route runner, has above average hands, that can get in and out of cuts quickly. He also has the trust and love of his QB, Kirk or Kurt ask Bruce Allen maybe he knows. While he might see some TD regression this year, his targets will increase as should his yards per catch. Outlook - Round 6/7
Grade = C
The first 6 weeks of the season he was a ghost, only compiling 21.8 Fantasy points. In his final 9 games of the season he had 105.5 points, which was an average of 11.7 PPG. That was the Crowder I had envisioned. The first 6 weeks of the season ruined a promising breakout season. I do think you can attribute the slow start to a nagging injury, he might be on this very list next season.
Stefon Diggs - WR #31 ADP 69
Look another if he can stay healthy type player. With Sam "I can't and won't throw it more than 12 yards" Bradford at the helm, Diggs looks poised for 130+ targets should he stay healthy. I love this kids game, shame he wasted his college career in College Park. He will be the most heavily targeted player on his team and consistently makes plays when he is involved. Unfortunately he has a average ceiling but is a very consistent WR3. Outlook - Round 7/8
Grade = A+
Finishing just inside the top 20 at 19th overall, Stefon Diggs had the exact season I had envisioned. He played in 13 games and was hobbled by a nagging injury per usual. Stefon averaged roughly 12.8 points per game. Given that average if he could have stayed healthy, a top 10 finish for Diggs was certain. I am looking forward to him continuing his NFL progression and will enjoy the 12-13 games he plays in next season.
Willie Snead - WR #32 ADP 80
Bye bye 120+ targets and Brandin Cooks and hello value town Willie Snead. Do I want a #2 WR that plays for the 3rd best QB in the best pass offense in the league?? Yes I would and his name is Willie Snead, as he is poised for a major breakout season. Really anyone with a pulse would break out in his situation, but he also happens to be talented. TDs, Targets, Yards is what you get when you play in NOLA and are the #2 WR so buy as much as you can at his value. Outlook - 7/8
Grade = F
Well I wrote this before his DUI became public, which had him miss the first four games of the season. That event appeared to put him in the dog house and he was not looked at to contribute all season long. Ted Ginn Jr took advantage of this scenario and finished the season as the 34th best WR. Sometimes you swing and miss.
Devante Parker - WR #36 ADP 97
Yep, he made the list for a second consecutive season. After a disappointing season last year he looks poised to breakout in his 3rd NFL season. No one has been talked about in a more positive way this offseason than Parker. He has changed his diet, body and mind and has been dominating all offseason. We heard similar chatter last year but this year will be different for one main reason. Jay Cutler, he will look his way early and often and put him in the top 5 for most targeted red-zone players. He has tremendous upside and can even crack the top 10 this year.
Grade = D
Well another WR that did nothing to achieve his breakout status. The first 3 games went as I had planned, he was heavily targeted and putting up 12.6 PPG. The remainder of the season he dealt with a foot injury and was a complete dud. He gets a slight pass with the foot injury lingering all year, but it completes another year that he does not live up to his talent levels.
Kareem Hunt - RB #34 ADP 92
With the injury to Spencer Ware, Hunt's draft value has skyrocketed. Most likely by the time you're reading this he will not longer be great value but should showcase his skills and be extremely productive in his rookie year. Andy Reid is a one RB kind of guy and you can expect Hunt to get well over 200 carries and 40+ catches with 10+ TDs. He will finish this year as a top 10 RB.
Grade = A+
Finally we hit a Home Run! He was tremendous in his first season, as he finished the season as the 4th overall RB and lead the NFL in rushing. While his coaching staff can be blamed for each of his poor games with lack of volume, he was simply spectacular in the games that they gave him the rock. He only had 8 points or less 4 times all season long. Then you have Charcandrick West robbing TDs like Bohdi robbing banks in Point Break.
Zach Ertz - TE #9 ADP 96
Baby Gronk looks poised for a huge year in Philadelphia. With the trade of Jordan Matthews the middle of the field will be all Ertz this year. When he is heavily featured at the end of each year he produces (31 Catches 364 Yards) in the final 4 games. Hopefully the coaches noticed as well and utilize him from weeks 1-13 not just 14-17 Outlook - Round 10
Grade = A+
Another Home Run! While I did draft AK in two of my three drafts, drafting Ertz was my next best value play this year. The TE Whisperer continues his run! Ertz finished the season as the third best TE while he missed two games due to injury in addition to losing his QB. He was by far the best receiving target on the Eagles all season and should continue to dominate over the next several years.
Hunter Henry - TE #11 ADP 103
Unfortunately Gates did not retire as he still looks for his 1 TD to surpass Gonzalez all time record. Henry is one of the most talented TE to come out of the draft in the last decade. He already has the trust of Rivers in the red-zone as he accounted for 8 TDs as a rookie. If they can just roll Gates into that retirement home by week 3 or 4 he will be one of the best values this season. It looks as though he will be held back by Gates and additional weapons but he still looks poised to breakout. Enjoy drafting him after round 9 this year because next year it will cost you a top 35 pick.
Grade = C
Another hear me out moment. He missed 4 games and averaged 8.7 PPG. If he had played all 16 games, he finishes as a top 6 TE. His breakout appears to coincide with Gates old ass retiring. I can already promise you that he will be back on this list next year and probably my Zach Ertz pick for the 2018 draft season assuming Gates is playing Bingo on Sunday's.
Robby Anderson - WR# 57 ADP 180
Thanks to the injury to Enunwa, Robby Anderson is now poised for a breakout. As you have learned it is all about Volume and Anderson will see a ton of it on a god awful Jets team. Only 3 players had over 120 targets last year and did not end up inside the top 35 at WR. With Anderson not even being drafted he is great value as he is going to end up in the top 30 with potential in the 20s. Outlook - Later Rounds
Grade = A+
Well I was feeling pretty down when I started grading this article but the last several players have made me feel much better about my predictions. Robby "I'll F Your Wife to a Cop" Anderson finished as the 16th yes 16th overall WR. That is over 40 spots of VALUE to his original ADP and WR projections! He saw the number of targets I had projected and found the end-zone a fair amount as well. It was a great late round pick that paid off in a BIG way.
Breakout Overall Grade - With 5 of the 12 players hitting as major breakouts how could I not give myself an A right??? Well just look at the 3 complete trash players that I had high hopes for who would have made me look like a genius on my busts page. Looking back at it though, I do think it was overall a B effort and am somewhat happy with my predictions. Hopefully other donks took those three busts before you in your draft, so that this article did not hurt you.
Sleepers - Reminder - NO top 40 Picks were allowed to be considered a sleeper.
Kennan Allen WR #19 ADP 41
He has been riddled with injuries throughout his career so we will label him a sleeper this year. This is Rivers favorite WR target since he got into the league. He is someone that will be targeted well over 130 times if he plays a full season. He was on pace for 134 catches out of 178 targets in 2015 with 8 TDs. While there are a ton of weapons in LA this year he should put up very solid numbers with WR1 potential. Outlook - Round 3
Grade = A+
He finally stayed healthy and put together his best season in the NFL. Finishing up as the #3 overall WR, he surpassed even my high expectations. He saw tons of targets and found the end-zone enough to make him one of the biggest sleepers in 2017.
Kelvin Benjamin - WR #29 ADP 57
He broke out as a rookie and then disappeared figuratively clearly not literally last year. He seems to of gotten rid of the bad weight and looks poised for a solid season. He has top 15 potential but with an inaccurate QB it makes it hard for him to reach his full potential. He will for sure outperform his WR29 value but will need 120+ targets and a more accurate Cam to get him into the top 15. Outlook - Round 6/7
Grade = N/A - F
With an injury plagued season to go along with a mid-season trade it would be hard to grade Benjamin season.
Brandon Marshall - WR #32 ADP 68
One of the most consistent players in fantasy football over the last decade. Last year's poor numbers were a result of putrid QB play. His move to NY will add a couple extra solid years of production to his career. Manning will look his way often in the red-zone which increases his value a ton. He is one of the best red-zone threats in the last decade and with over 120+ targets coming his way, it is back to fantasy relevance for Marshall. Outlook - Round 7
Grade = N/A - F
5 Games is not a season, but it did not looking promising for B Marsh this season. Hopefully you slept on this sleeper.
Doug Martin - RB #30 ADP 71
I have had great success with Doug over his career, as he is what we will call a motivation player. I draft him when he is motivated via contract, rookie proving grounds or in this case a prove it season coming off a suspension. He will miss 3 games this year which takes him out of top 15, but he will be near the top for avg pts a game. He is coming into the season healthy and in great shape. One of the better value players in the draft this year, he will be on a ton of my teams.
Grade = F
He came out of the gates as expected with 15, 15, 9, 8 PPG. Then he was a complete ghost with nothing to show for 2017 season. This will be the last time I defend the man that has given me some quality years as a fantasy RB. I look for the Bucs to cut him and it is safe to say his NFL career is in serious jeopardy.
Jeremy Maclin - WR #37 ADP 98
After an injury plagued season Maclin has a fresh scenery for the 2017 season. The Ravens have finished in the top 5 in passing attempts the last 3 seasons. With only Mike Wallace as competition for these targets, I look for Maclin to get back to his 85+ 1100+ type production.
Grade = D
Another injury plagued player that did not help his team much. It appears I got him and Mike Wallace confused, as he was the true sleeper of the Ravens. When one team is willing to trade a productive player right before the season kicks off, let that be a notice of the level of play you should expect. Lesson learned.
Jonathan Stewart - RB #38 ADP 99
McCaffrey is a slasher that will be lined up all over the field which leads us to our next sleeper J Stew. He will get the volume of a RB1 and will be heavily featured around the goal-line. 215+ carries and 6-10 TDs and you just found yourself a diamond in the rough. He is tremendous value falling after round 10 in most drafts.
Grade = A
Well considering this guy knocked me out of my big money league with his 3td performance, how can you not call him a sleeper of all sleepers. It was probably his last season of any type of production in the NFL but he did provide some quality games for you during bye weeks and other such injury issues a team faces.
I could go on for days but some additional names you want to keep an eye on.
Corey Coleman, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, Jamaal Williams, Austin Hooper, Gio Bernard, Tyler Lockett, Alvin Kamara, Kenny Golladay,
Grade = C+ Marvin Jones, J Williams, Gio, Kamara all had very good season and it appears I should have written a blurb about each of them as this would have made my Sleeper breakdown much better!
