2018 Breakouts and Sleepers!
With draft season right around the corner, it's time to identify which players we want to steer clear of and which ones we want to target.
I will be using the .5PPR scoring rankings from Fantasy Pros instead of my rankings, as it gives the current (Avg Draft Pos) for all sites that are currently drafting. This list will contain the rookies that I expect to have a big impact along with the other players that are on the verge of having great seasons. We will go with players not in the top 30 ADP unless they're a rookie.
Breakouts -
Saquon Barkley - RB #9 ADP 14
The rookie from Penn State is going to have a monster season. He should see well over 275 carries and be heavily involved in the passing game. I would be looking to take him in the top-8 overall especially if you're the type that loves RBs. I have him going ahead of Hunt, Gordon, Fournette, and Cook.
Christian McCaffrey - RB #16 ADP 35
I am finally buying into all the coaches hype about McCaffrey. If he does indeed get the workload expected, I would have him right behind Barkley as my RB#7. He is going to catch over 75 balls and should be much more involved in the running game after only 117 carries as a rookie.
Devonte Adams - WR #10 ADP 24
With Jordy Nelson gone, Adams is poised for a breakout year in which he should see around 140 targets. Rodgers #1 target has never not finished inside of the top 10 at his position and I would expect Adams to get near the top-5 this season.
Stefon Diggs - WR #17 ADP 38
With Keenum no longer in Minnesota, Diggs will no longer be the second option with the Vikings. It seems as though Cousins and Diggs have developed an early chemistry which should showcase his talents this season.
Royce Freeman - RB #28 ADP 88
The rookie out of Oregon should take over as the lead back in Denver early into the season. I frankly do not believe in Booker as a player and with Keenum making this offense serviceable, I expect Freeman to take advantage of his opportunity and finish as a top-20 RB with the offensive line that has been put in place.
Michael Crabtree - WR #30 ADP 78
An absolute red-zone monster, Flacco will be looking Crabtree's way early and often this season. While he is not much of a deep-threat, he should see more than 120 targets and a ridiculous amount of red-zone targets which he should convert into 8 or so touchdowns. I love where he is currently going in drafts as he would be an ideal WR3.
Emmanuel Sanders - WR #35 ADP 92
Probably one of my favorite sleepers this season, I fully expect Sanders to out play Demaryius Thomas this season. Keenum peppered Thielen 143 times last year while Diggs only saw 95, while I still think Thomas gets over 110, Sanders will be his favorite target and lead the Broncos in catches this season.
Marquise Goodwin - WR #37 ADP 102
Much like the Sanders situation, I fully expect Goodwin to out play Garcon this season. Jimmy G has his eyes squarely on old porn-stars off the field and Marquise Goodwin on it. With Garcon missing the final eight games the season, Goodwin and Garoppolos' chemistry developed, this olympic speedster is ready to fly in 2018.
Sony Michel / Rex Burkhead
Both of these guys are going to have great games for the Patriots this season. Currently both are sidelined by knee injuries but should rejoin the team before the season starts. I think Michel finishes as a top 15 back if he can get his knee healthy and not fumble the football. You will have to wait till October for this situation to play out though, be patient both have tremendous upside.
Aaron Jones or J. Williams - RB #42 ADP 115
One of the best situations in the league, one of these two should finish as a top-20 back should he stay healthy for the Packers this season. I am trying to get both players in all drafts.
Frankly, I could go on for hours. The following players will ball out this season and surpass their ADP.
Crowder, C Thompson, Burton, Carson, Cohen, Barber, Lockett, Cole, Godwin, A. Miller, Gallup, C. Meredith, Seals-Jones, Allison, Tre'quan Smith,
I do not put quarterbacks in these articles but if you read the team preview for the following you know how high I am on each. Patrick Freaking Mahomes is going to light it up this year and put up D. Watson like numbers in his small rookie sample size. Also get as many shares of Andrew Luck on your roster as you can he is going to finish as a top-5 fantasy football quarterback.
Sleepers -
Mark Ingram - RB #22 ADP 62
Suspended for the first 4 games, Mark Ingram looks to finish the final 12 as a top-15 fantasy football back. He is in a great situation in which he should see a ton of work as they look to keep him and Kamara fresh for the playoffs. You're getting great value in the 5th round taking Ingram
Julian Edelman - WR #32 ADP 88
Also suspended for the first four games of the season, Brady's favorite slot receiver returns week 5. Getting a top-20 receiver in the 8th or 9th round is stealing and that is what you have to look forward to should you draft Edelman.
Marshawn Lynch - RB #27 ADP 72
I expect Jon Gruden to run the football this year and that means a lot of volume for Beast Mode. While he is no longer capable of breaking long runs, he will provide you with the perfect RB3 type player that should get around 8 touchdowns this season.
Nelson Agholor - WR #40 ADP 112
With Alshon looking like a potential PUP add, Agholor looks poised for another very good year. One of the best offenses last season, Agholor should see a lot more red-zone looks while adding to his 62 receptions this season.
Randall Cobb - WR #48 ADP 129
One of the more dependable receivers for Rodgers will be the kid from Alcoa. I think Cobb has top-30 WR upside and should provide you with great value going after pick 10.
He should still see over 100 targets while catching 6+ touchdowns in the red-zone. I will be getting as many late shares as I can of Cobb this season.
Kenny Stills - WR #42 ADP 118
The leading returning receiver for the Dolphins is Kenny Stills. Oh yea, over 160 targets also walked out the door with Jarvis Landry no longer around. If you're going for an upside play in the 10th or 11th round, Kenny Stills is the definition. While I think the slot receivers catch more balls, Stills will for sure see an uptick in volume this season.
Jordan Reed - TE #13 ADP 108
If he stays healthy and you drafted Jordan Reed, you will be getting the biggest steal in the draft. I think Reed is going to have a monster season for the Redskins as Alex Smith is one of the most proficient TE passers in the league. I am trying to get him in every draft that I can this season.
