2018 Busts

With draft season right around the corner, it's time to identify which players we want to steer clear of and which ones we want to target.

I will be using the .5PPR scoring rankings from Fantasy Pros instead of my rankings, as it gives the current (Avg Draft Pos) for all sites that are currently drafting. You might disagree with the players listed, but these are players that I will plan to avoid because their ADP is too high / in for a bad year with changes etc.

Le'Veon Bell - RB #2 ADP 2

Well this will be a shocker for everyone. I simply think he is going to mail it in this season due to the franchise tag. He holds all over the leverage in his negotiations this coming off-season so he MUST do whatever it takes to stay healthy. With him still not reporting to camp, there will no doubt be another slow start to the season if and when he returns much like last year. If he gives you 15 games, he will not be a bust, but I am starting to think he will be holding out several games into the season. Be very cautious with Bell in this years draft as he could ruin your season before it even gets started.

Demaryius Thomas - WR #17 ADP 41

The Broncos finally upgraded the quarterback situation but unfortunately for Demaryius Thomas he loves throwing to slot-receivers. While everyone will be taking Thomas in the 4th or 5th round with an ADP of 41, Emmanuel Sanders will be the #1 receiver this year in Denver.

He should still see over 110 targets but with another year under his belt and his partner in crime getting most of the love, Thomas will not achieve his ADP of 41.

Brandon Cooks - WR #22 ADP 43

Too many Cooks in the kitchen here. With 3 very good receiving options in Los Angeles, Cooks will not see enough volume to achieve his ADP of 43. Last year Sammy Watkins was used as a decoy on the majority of his routes, while Kupp and Woods dominated on short throws. I expect all of these guys to see about the same target share, making Cooks value razor thin at 43 overall. I would rather draft Kupp or Woods 4 to 5 rounds later in the draft than rely on an inaccurate deep ball thrower to pepper his small speedster on the outside.

Allen Robinson - WR #21 ADP 47

With a career catch rate of 52.3% and a quarterback that only completed 59.4% of his throws, I want no part of Allen Robinson in the 4th to 5th round. He will have some monster games, but will need well over 135 targets to achieve his current ADP. I frankly would rather take a guy like Chris Hogan who will have Brady peppering him with targets than Robinson in this range.

Jimmy Graham - TE #5 ADP 52

The definition of touchdown dependent is Jimmy Graham this season. With a propensity of getting hurt as his career has gone on, Graham will need 10+ touchdowns to get you anywhere near his current ADP of 52. Rodgers has never put up massive numbers with a tight-end and at 31 years old Graham will no longer be streaking down the middle of the field averaging more than 12.5 yards a catch. Plenty of later round TEs that will achieve the same value as Graham this season.

Marvin Jones - WR #24 ADP 54

The biggest bust risk at receiver in this draft is Marvin Jones. His target share will be dropping from 108 and there is a zero percent chance that he averages 18 yards per catch as well. The majority of his damage came in a four-game stretch in which Kenny Golladay was hampered with an injury (25-385-3TDs). Golladay is now healthy and entering his second season looking to take away targets and red-zone touchdowns from Jones this season.

I would be very cautious with those receivers in rounds 3-6 as many will not get near the target share needed to achieve there ADP. Also be careful with the rookie running backs that were not ready to take on starting roles with their teams this pre-season like Ronald Jones. The ADPs have been much better sorted out though and will be doing this article from now on in Mid-August.