2019 Team Previews - Atlanta Falcons
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Matt Ryan RB: Devonta Freeman WR: Julio Jones WR: Mohamed Sanu WR: Calvin Ridley
TE: Austin Hooper LT: Jake Matthews LG: James Carpenter C: Alex Mack RG: Chris Lindstrom RT: Ty Sambrailo
Falcons Offensive Profile 2015-2018 Pass Attempts Rank: 8th, 26th, 20th, 5th 2015-2018 Rush Attempts Rank: 16th, 12th, 16th, 30th 2015-2018 Play Volume Rank: 7th, 26th, 25th, 23rd 2015-2018 Yards Per Play Rank: 11th, 1st, 3rd, 4th
Dirk Koetter's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. (11 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
567 356 61.9 4116 7.15 258 68 24 4.3 16 2.95 38 248 86
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
418 1717 4.1 51 9 12 101.6 7 3 91
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
354 561 4100 11.6 24 68 48 256.3 5 3 1641 206
Quarterback-
Dirk Koetter has a track record for throwing the football, as his teams have averaged passing on 58% of plays in his coordinating career. During his time in Atlanta, those numbers ballooned up to 64%, which makes one feel good about Matt Ryan this fantasy football season.
Matt Ryan has been freed of Steve Sarkisian's shaky hands. Hopefully Sarkisian can poison those waters down in Tuscaloosa over the next couple of years. Back to the Falcons and Matt Ryan, who look primed for another monster year throwing the football.
Let's take a deep dive at what Matt Ryan and Dirk Koetter did together during his three seasons in Atlanta. They averaged 635 pass attempts, completed 67.4% of those passes for an average of 4,672 yards at a clip of 7.37 yards per attempt and 29 touchdowns. If Matt Ryan reaches his averages while Koetter called plays for him, he is a top-5 fantasy football quarterback this year.
Fantasy Outlook- For those of you that are not aware and clearly haven't read a single piece that I have written this summer. Matt Ryan opens the season playing his first 11 yes 11 games in a dome. Matt Ryan had 25 points or more in seven games last season, five of those came in a dome. Psst- Matt Ryan is going to throw for a ton of yards and a lot of touchdowns this season, draft Matt Ryan.
Wide Receiver-
With so many mouths to feed in this Atlanta offense, I took a look back at Koetter's first three seasons to see if they could all eat. What I found was, pretty concrete evidence that multiple pass-catchers can have monster years this season for the Falcons. In 2012 Roddy White caught 92 passes for 1,351 yards and 7 touchdowns while Julio Jones caught 79 balls for 1,198 yards and 10 touchdowns. For those of you that do not have a calculator around or are too lazy, that is 171 catches for 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns. In 2014, the next season in which both played a full season Roddy White caught 80 passes for 921 yards and 7 touchdowns, while Julio Jones caught 104 balls for 1,593 yards and 6 touchdowns. Which equates to 184 catches for 2,514 yards and 13 touchdowns. This years offense will be very similar, but it is now Julio Jones that is the veteran and Calvin Ridley will assume the #2 role.
Julio Jones enters his 9th season in the NFL in what is going to end with an enshrinement in Canton Ohio. For a guy that most complain about as being injury prone, he is coming off of three of his last four seasons in which he played all 16 regular season games. In the 15 games that he played under Koetter after taking over as the Falcons #1 receiver, he caught 104 of 163 targets for 1,593 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Fantasy Outlook- With a career average of 9.8 targets per-game and a pass happy coordinator it is a mathematical certainty that he will have over 160 targets should he play in all 16 games. With his average catch rate of 63.7% and 160+ targets and 6+ touchdowns you see why he is someone that I want to take in the back-end of round one or early round two.
Calvin Ridley- Since 2009, Matt Ryan has targeted outside wide receivers on 42.6% of his throws, which currently is the 4th highest percentage in the NFL during that span. Last season Calvin Ridley ran 19.2% of his routes from the slot and 80.8% outside. One of the leagues best young route runners, Ridley looks to improve upon his fantastic rookie campaign. Last season Ridley caught 64 of 92 passes for 821 yards and 10 touchdowns. While touchdown regression is for certain, Ridley will see more snaps as he only played 65% last season thus he will get more targets, catches, and yards this season.
Fantasy Outlook- While I do love Ridley and this Falcons offense, a current ADP of 56 is too high for a guy that I am expecting to have significant touchdown regression. He will be a quality flex play all season long, but with so many mouths to feed his consistency is something that will lack from week-to-week. When you're investing in a pick within the first six rounds of your draft, it is extremely important to draft players that are very consistent as you will be counting on them weekly.
Mohamed Sanu- Since 2009, Matt Ryan has targeted slot receivers 18.8% of the time, which ranks 19th in the NFL. Last season Mohamed Sanu ran 62.3% of his routes from the slot while catching 70.2% of his targets. In 2012 Koetter's slot receiver Harry Douglas was targeted 59 times while in 2014 he was targeted 75 times on team that attempted 632 passes. In the last three seasons, Sanu has averaged 90 targets a season. With the emergence of Calvin Ridley and Ryan's lack of interest in the slot, it is likely that we see regression from Mohamed Sanu this season.
Fantasy Outlook- Even though regression is coming for Mohamed Sanu the shear volume of passing plays that this Falcons team is going to have makes him fantasy viable this season. I would not want to count on Sanu as a starter, but for a guy that isn't even getting drafted in some leagues he is more than capable of filling in for an injury or bye week.
Tight End-
This position has been neglected since Tony Gonzales retired, which is something that will change under Koetter. Dirk Koetter has had his TE1 targeted 70 times or more in 7 of his 11 seasons calling plays. In five of those seasons his TE1 saw 80 targets or more. Austin Hooper has seen his usage increase dramatically over his three year career. It started at 27 targets his rookie season then to 65 which ballooned to 88 last season.
Fantasy Outlook- I would be looking for 80-100 targets for Hooper this season, which makes him a viable starting candidate at tight end. With a current ADP of 124, he is someone you can grab, should you miss out on the top-8 targets in the first seven rounds of your draft.
Running Back-
Running the football has not been something Dirk Koetter has done very well during his time in Atlanta. The Falcons averaged 61 carries fewer during his time in Atlanta than his 11 year career average. With fewer attempts also comes fewer yards gained. His teams averaged 1,717 rushing yards per season, while in Atlanta they only averaged 1,381. Those are two fairly significant drop offs for a teams rushing production that we must be mindful of.
Devonta Freeman is coming off of two injury plagued years, in which he only played a total of 16 games. If he can stay healthy which he currently is, Freeman should capitalize on the departure of Tevin Coleman in a major way. The good news for Freeman is that Atlanta went out and invested major assets on its offensive line. The Falcons drafted Chris Lindstrom (G) out of Boston College with the 14th pick in the draft and then took Kaleb McGary (T) out of Washington with the 31st pick in the draft. Pair those two talented rookies with pro-bowlers Alex Mack, Jake Matthews and you have the makings of a good offensive line.
Fantasy Outlook- With a current ADP of #33 Devonta Freeman is going right where he should. The backup position isn't settled, which means more work for Freeman. I am expecting 200-225 carries with another 50 or so touches in the passing game, making him a top-15 player at the position. I will take the gamble on Freeman this year as I believe the Falcons will be a top-5 offense and who doesn't want a running back with that type of goal-line upside?
Backup- Currently Ito Smith is trying to hold off Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison. Frankly, I am not a huge fan of Judge Ito and will wait to see how things shake out in camp before I even look at the backup situation in Atlanta.
Vegas Win Total
The Falcons win total opened at 8.5 (-120) which is right in line with where I would put this team. Offensively it will be one of the best units in the league, as it is absolutely loaded with talent. This is where Dan Quinn needs to make his money and take over the defense that has averaged 20th in total defense during his five seasons in Atlanta. Last year it was an average defense at best that was atrocious after several key pieces went down with season-ending injuries. The depth was not addressed this off-season as they invested in the offensive-line in both free agency and the NFL draft. The defense will need to be much improved to handle an absolutely brutal schedule as they face a team that was one blown call away from the Super Bowl and two teams that will be much improved from last year in Carolina and Tampa Bay. Making matters worse for a team with a difficult division, they will have to play the NFC West which includes three teams that will be fighting for spots in the playoff race. If this defense can stay healthy and be around middle of the pack, the Falcons will hit this over, I do not see that being the case though and would go under 8.5 wins.
