2019 Team Previews - Buffalo Bills

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Josh Allen RB: LeSean McCoy WR: John Brown WR: Zay Jones WR: Robert Foster TE: Tyler Kroft

LT: Dion Dawkins LG: Jon Feliciano C: Mitch Morse RG: Spencer Long RT: Ty Nsekhe

Buffalo Bills Offensive Profile 2015-2018 Pass Attempts Rank: 31st, 32nd, 31st, 28th 2015-2018 Rush Attempts Rank: 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 6th 2015-2018 Play Volume Rank: 20th, 18th, 15th, 17th 2015-2018 Yards Per Play Rank: 8th, 15th, 29th, 31st

Brian Daboll's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. (6 Seasons)

Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE

498 286 57.3 3197 6.39 210.2 67 15 3.85 17 3.65 40 249 71.6

Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN

461 1999 4.24 63 11 13 124.9 10 5 101

Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN

285 495 3199 11.3 15 67 42 200 3 3 1369 157

Quarterback-

The Bills offense is lead again by Brian Daboll as he returns for his second season in Buffalo. In his five year career as an offensive coordinator, Daboll's offenses run an average 498 passing attempts (52%) and 461 rush attempts (48%). In terms of his overall play-caller profile his offenses have typically been found at the bottom of the league in every aspect but rushing. On average his offensive teams have finished 27th in total yards, 28th in total points, 29th in pass attempts, 29th in passing yards, 9th in rush attempts and 11th in rushing yards.

Josh Allen

The Bills look to improve upon Josh Allen's inconsistent rookie season. In his final five games, Allen threw for 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. First, I want to send a special shoutout to Josh for his final game of the season, when he went 17 of 26 for 224 yards 3 TD's while adding 9 carries for 95 yards and 2 more touchdowns on the ground. This effort helped me win seven contest in week 17 including the $3 millionaire on Draft Kings for 100k.

I would expect to see some growth as a passer this season as the Bills did upgrade his weapons on the outside and it will be year two in Brian Daboll's system. The one part of regression in his game should be rushing attempts, as the majority of his rushes were scrambles from the pocket and not designed runs. I would expect defensive coordinators to focus on keeping him in the pocket and for his progression to be a bit faster allowing him to get the ball out on time.

Fantasy Outlook-

His rushing ability gives him upside in fantasy football but with quarterback being so deep this season, I will only be looking to add him as my QB2 with upside. I will obviously continue to use him in DFS, as that is a much better fit for his skill set as a boom or bust type player.

Wide Receiver-

The Bills receiving corp was upgraded this offseason as they went out and signed John Brown and Cole Beasley. Under Daboll his receievers have averaged 11.3 yards per catch and 15 touchdowns a season. In terms of explosive plays they average 42 plays generating 20+ yards while adding 1,369 yards of yards after contact, which is very low in terms of other offensive coordinators.

John Brown

After just one season in Baltimore "Smoke" was signed by the Bills this off-season. One of the fastest receivers in the league, John Brown should gel well with Josh Allen who is constantly taking deep shots. His big play ability has never been in question, but his lack of consistency is what holds his fantasy value back. In 72 games he has just 215 catches but averages 15 yards per reception and 22 touchdowns. If he can become a better route runner and be more consistent with his hands, he becomes a high upside WR3 this season.

Fantasy Outlook-

I have always been infatuated with his ability since he was drafted by the Cardinals in 2014. This is probably the best fit offensively for Brown, as there will be a ton of deep shots in this offense with Allen under center. His lack of consistency will always be an issue for fantasy football though, as he simply will not win enough in the short to intermediate passing game which is required to become a top-20 WR.

Zay Jones

In terms of consistency in the passing game for the Bills, they will be relying on Zay Jones to make another step in his career. The third year player out of East Carolina more than doubled his receptions from his rookie season going from 27 to 56. They will need him to have another big jump, as he will be the primary short to intermediate receiver in this offense.

Fantasy Outlook-

Things that I do not get excited for when looking at a receiver in fantasy football. A quarterback that completes less than 60% of his passes, and a receiver that has a catch rate of less than 55%. Unfortuatnely Zay Jones checks both of these boxes as he has an abysmal career catch rate of 47%. I have no interest in Jones this season, even though he should be the most targeted player on the team.

Robert Foster

One player who really showed me a lot last season was Robert Foster. After not having much production at Alabama, he really balled out in his rookie season down the stretch. In his final seven games of the season when he began to get a decent snap share, he caught 25 balls for 511 yards and 3 touchdowns. With his ability to play inside or outside, his snap share should increase considerably this season.

Fantasy Outlook-

At the moment they have him as WR3, which makes him irrelevant in fantasy football this season. I would pay close attention to this receiving corp though, as Brown struggles to stay healthy and I just think he is more talented than Zay Jones. I do have some shares of Foster in best ball and do not mind him in dynasty drafts.

Tight End-

After losing Charles Clay in free agency, the Bills acquired Tyler Kroft to fill the void. Frankly there isn't much of a void to be filled, as Allen does not look his tight ends way often after just 71 target's were allocated to the position last year.

Fantasy Outlook-

Tyler Kroft is not fantasy football relevant.

Running Back-

Another positive for the running game is that Brian Daboll lead offenses have finished top six in rushing attempts in three out of his four years as an OC. The problem with this Bills team is who is going to get the carries and will one separate himself from the pack.

The Bills currently have LeSean McCoy as their starting running back this season. So why did they sign free agent Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon and draft rookie Devin Singletary? McCoy is past his prime and yet he will be battling it out with a guy that will be in a wheelchair before they can get him to retire. Frank Gore is one of my favorite players in the league, no one has fought his way through adversity like Gore. If he wants to wheel his way out onto the field, let him the guy deserves it. I want no part of this backfield but will be paying close attention to see how things shake out this pre-season. I am intrigued by Singletary, but with so many mouths to feed you can keep him on the waiver wire watch.

2019 Vegas Win Total The Buffalo Bills win total for 2019 is 6.5 (-160) with heavy juice on the over. The under 6.5 win total last year was one of my biggest bets that cashed. I am not nearly as down on the Bills this season, as they have added some nice pieces that should help them be more competitive.

I also will never say another bad thing about Josh Allen the rest of my life as he lead the way to my six-figure cash in Draft Kings last season.

The Bills play in a very beatable AFC East while also getting to play against a top heavy NFC East. That gives the Bills six games that are complete coin flips which makes the over 6.5 possible. I would expect for Josh Allen to take a step forward in his second year as the Bills now have some weapons at WR if John Brown can stay healthy. The schedule alone makes this over possible but I still will not wager on a team that's talent level is in the bottom third of the league. This is a pass for me as I expect the Bills to win 5-8 games this season.