2019 Team Previews - Denver Broncos
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Joe Flacco RB: Phillip Lindsay / Royce Freeman WR: DaeSean Hamilton WR: Emmanuel Sanders WR: Courtland Sutton TE: Jake Butt / Noah Fant
LT: Garett Bolles LG: Ronald Leary C: Connor McGovern RG: Elijah Wilkinson RT: Ja'Wuan James
Denver Broncos Offensive Profile
2016-2018 Pass Attempts Rank: 17th, 12th, 8th 2016-2018 Rush Attempts Rank: 15th, 8th, 21st 2016-2018 Play Volume Rank: 26th, 2nd, 22nd 2016-2018 Yards Per Play Rank: 26th, 28th, 18th
Rich Scangarello's first season as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. (0 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
Quarterback-
The Denver Broncos have been searching for Manning's replacement since he retired in 2015. Since his retirement, the Broncos have squandered picks on Paxton Lynch, Chad Kelly, Trevor Siemian and now Drew Lock. With the Case Keenum experiment ruled a failure, they dealt him to Washington while they traded for Joe Flacco. At some point ownership in the mile high city needs to address what the real issue is and give Elway his much deserved pink slip.
Player Personnel is not the only thing that Elways has whiffed on, as he fired Vance Joseph after two lackluster seasons in Denver. With the team moving on from Joseph, Elway hired one of the best defensive minds in football, Vic Fangio. While I do think highly of Fangio, his head coaching jobs are very much in question. as he has never been one before. What I find most puzzling is Elway allowing Fangio to hire an offensive coordinator with no play-calling experience.
I am not sure what the rationale is with hiring first year offensive coordinators, but Scangarello is the 5th coach hired this offseason to run an offense for the first time. With a defensive minded head coach and two fantastic young running backs, I would imagine this is a balanced attack that features a lot of shifts and motion pre-snap that mixes in a lot of play-action.
Joe Flacco frankly isn't a top-20 quarterback in this league and I am not sure what Elway was looking to add here. Will this team be in the playoff hunt with his average to below average play at quarterback, the answer is probably, but this team cannot win Championships with him as the starting quarterback. His ceiling as a fantasy football quarterback is 27 touchdowns, as he has never thrown for more and has averaged less than 18 in his last five seasons.
Fantasy Outlook-
He is not inside my top-25 as a fantasy football quarterback this season, I am just hoping that his below average play won't hurt a couple of the players that I believe have fantasy football value.
Wide Receiver-
The Broncos have a solid core of young receivers on this team which should help a passing game that finished 19th in pass offense last season. While I am not a huge Joe Flacco fan, his presence offers a high floor floor for his receivers than Keenum did.
Emmanuel Sanders was one of the favorite sleepers last season and he responded in a major way catching 71 of 98 passes for 868 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 12 games. Unfortunately, Sanders tore his Achilles and is rehabbing in hopes of getting back early this season.
Fantasy Outlook-
I just do not want a 32 year old receiver, that coming off of a major injury no matter how good the practice reports are. He is on my do not draft list this season.
DaeSean Hamilton was looking like my favorite receiver in Denver before the news of Sanders returning hit. Last season Hamilton ran 58.2% routes out of the slot compared to Sutton's 15.4% and Patrick's 26.2%. The matchup problems that Hamilton puts on a defense along with his ability still have me intrigued but with the addition of Flacco and his 16.4% (19th) attempts to slot receivers I am lowering my expectations for him this season.
Fantasy Outlook-
With an ADP of #193, I will take the wait and see approach to how this Broncos passing game pans out. He could become a late round pick for me if I like his slot usage this preseason, but I will continue to hold off till I gain more information about this offense.
Courtland Sutton is the deep threat in this offense. At 6'3/218 Sutton posses the elite ball skills and size to play outside. While he has the biggest upside of any of the Broncos receivers, his consistency must be improved for him to be a fantasy option this season.
Tight End-
Another position that has been a struggle for Elway to hit, on has been tight end. The Broncos selected Jake Butt a couple seasons ago but injuries have derailed a once promising career. With two ACL surgeries in the last three seasons the Broncos were unsure of what Butt would bring to the table, so they went out and drafted one of the premiere players at the position in Noah Fant.
Noah Fant is a receiving tight end that can be split across the entire formation. He posses acceleration and speed that makes him a matchup nightmare for linebackers while his 6'4 249 pound frame torments slot corners. One of the best athletes in the draft, who excelled in the triple jump, high jump and basketball, Fant looks to be the next great tight end out of Iowa. In order to become an every down tight end, he must become a better blocker and become a more physical football player.
Fantasy Outlook-
Massive upside in dynasty and rookie drafts, however I am looking for a more proven commodity in season long. If I am going to take Fant, I will be looking to add him with one of my top-8 tight ends assuring myself production from the most difficult position to roster in fantasy football.
Running Back-
The Broncos success this season will be determined by how far Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay can carry this team. Last season the un-drafted Lindsay burst onto the scene as he totaled 1,278 yards and 10 touchdowns earning a Pro-Bowl invitation.
Royce Freeman looks to bounce back after a disappointing rookie season in which the third round pick out of Oregon was bested by an un-drafted rookie in Phillip Lindsay. Last season, Freeman had 130 carries for 521 yards (4.0 YPC) and five touchdowns. With a new coaching staff in place and Lindsay out of OTA's while recovering from wrist surgery, Freeman was able to demonstrate his abilities in what he hopes helps him recapture the starting role. At 6'0 238 pounds, Freeman is a better fit as the lead runner in this offense, while Lindsay will offer a great change of pace.
Fantasy Outlook-
With an ADP of #95, I am much more comfortable taking Freeman than I am Phillip Lindsay as he is 54 spots lower than a guy he should out carry. This running back by committee approach crushes both of their values, so if I am going to take a Bronco it will be the one I can grab later in my fantasy drafts.
Phillip Lindsay looks to keep his Pro-Bowl form after a sensational rookie season. After rushing for 1.037 yards on just 192 carries (5.4 YPC) it's hard to see them decreasing his workload on a run heavy team. While he was dynamite in the running game, he was also an excellent receiver as he caught 35 of 47 passes for 241 yards and another touchdown. My original take when breaking down this offense was that they would keep Lindsay between 175-200 carries while having him handle the majority of the third down work. Well that went out the window when the team signed Theo Riddick, who is a passing downs specialist. While I do believe Lindsay will see an uptick in targets, Riddick takes away any 50+ catch season hopes that I once had. If you're a running back that catches the ball well, Joe Flacco is the quarterback for you. Last season Flacco targeted his running backs on 23.2% of passes, which is the third highest percentage in the league.
Fantasy Outlook- With an ADP of #41, there is no way I can take Lindsay at this price. His passing down volume took a massive hit when they signed Riddick. It also appears that this team will split the carries between Lindsay and Freeman with a slight higher percentage going to the bigger more physical Freeman. I would not take Lindsay in the first seven rounds of any 12-team leagues. 2019 Vegas Win Total The Broncos’ Win Total opened at 7(-110). I honestly still can't believe John Elway has a General Manager job in the NFL. He should be sending monthly checks to Peyton Manning because without him coming in Elway is 0-for-100 on his quarterback selections.
The defense will be much improved with Vic Fangio handling that side of the ball but they have an unproven play-caller who has yet to call a play in the NFL.
The schedule does not do them any favors as they have to play KC, LAC, Indy, GB, Chi, Cle, Min, and Hou. The defense should be dominate once again but with Flacco at quarterback and an offensive coordinator that has zero experience, I can't bet on this team to win more than seven games.
