2019 Team Previews - Tennessee Titans
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Marcus Mariota RB: Derrick Henry / Dion Lewis WR: Corey Davis WR: Adam Humphries WR: Taywan Taylor TE: Delanie Walker
LT: Taylor Lewan LG: Rodger Saffold C: Ben Jones RG: Kevin Pamphile RT: Jack Conklin
Tennessee Titans Offensive Profile 2016-2018 Pass Attempts Rank: 28th, 28th, 31st 2016-2018 Rush Attempts Rank: 4th, 14th, 9th 2016-2018 Play Volume Rank: 22nd, 29th, 28th 2016-2018 Yards Per Play Rank: 11th, 18th, 23rd
Arthur Smith is entering his first season as an NFL Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator. (0 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
Quarterback-
The Titans are clearly frustrated with the lack of development Marcus Mariota has shown so far in his career as they went out and signed former Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill this offseason. The former number two pick in the draft will have to show a ton of improvement this season if he wants to be back as the Titans starter next season. Offensively with the departure of Matt LaFleur, the Titans turn play calling duties over to first year coordinator Arthur Smith. With no tape on Smith, it is difficult to know how he will run his offense. With a defensive minded head coach and a former offensive lineman calling plays you would think they lean heavily on the run game taking pressure off of their struggling quarterback.
Marcus Mariota enters his 5th year as the Titans starting quarterback. Last season Mariota fell well short of expectations as the team went 7-6 in his 14 games played. In those 14 games Mariota threw for 2,528 yards, 11 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and completing 68.9% of his passes. All were career lows, except for his completion percentage, which further proves his lack of development as he struggled to go through his progressions and find the open receivers down field.
The team has tried to add weapons for the former Oregon standout, but so far they have failed to muster much of a passing game. The Titans added a few more weapons this offseason to pair with former first round pick Corey Davis, and third rounder Taywan Taylor. The Titans signed Adam Humphries while drafting AJ Brown in the second round. This team will have to get Henry going for it to be successful offensively. If they can get Henry on track it will open up the play-action pass, which is something Mariota does well (115.8 rating) compared to (92.3).
Fantasy Outlook-
I currently do not have Mariota inside my top-20 and do not see him as a starter this season in what is an extremely deep year at quarterback. His rushing upside can easily change that narrative if they develop the passing game any this offseason. At the moment he is just a quarterback that I will monitor and maybe add in free agency.
Wide Receiver-
It is time for Corey Davis to finally live up to his hype entering as the teams leading receiver. He should benefit with the return of Delanie Walker, as the Pro-Bowler returns from a broken ankle last season. With more eyes focused on Walker and having to account for deep threat rookie AJ Brown, Davis and company should see more winnable one-on-one matchups this season.
Corey Davis enters his third season with the Tennessee Titans. The former 5th overall pick in the draft needs to be more consistent and improve upon his 65 catches for 891 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. The big play ability is there for the young receiver out of Western Michigan, he just needs to be more consistent with his route running and approach. If he does not develop with his quarterback, both players might be looking for new homes sooner rather than later.
Fantasy Outlook-
The 2017 wide receiver class was loaded with a couple of stars in the making, but at the moment the highest one selected has not shined very bright. JuJu Smith-Schuster leads the way followed by several guys that I want to take in fantasy football this season. Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Dede Westbrook, Curtis Samuel, and Mike Williams. The last one of the bunch that I have interest in at the moment is Corey Davis with an ADP of #93.
The Opportunity is there as should be the volume, can Davis take advantage of his situation, I believe so and it makes him a value pick at his current ADP.
AJ Brown / Adam Humphries
The rest of the receivers do not offer any fantasy value as this looks to be the team to finish dead last in passing attempts this season. In terms of rookie drafts and dynasty drafts, I do believe AJ Brown can become a player in this league if the quarterback position is upgraded. I do not feel that Humphries is a good fit in Tennessee as Delanie Walker will gobble up the majority of the short to intermediate throws and Mariota will not supply enough targets to make him a weekly fantasy player. Tight End-
Delanie Walker returns in what is a major boost for a struggling Titans passing attack. Marcus Mariota has leaned heavily on his tight ends, as he has targeted them the 2nd most in the NFL (27.7%) last season. While Walker will be 35 this year, he reportedly hasn't lost a step and looks close to 100% in camp. Walker is the ultimate security blanket since joining the Titans catching 360 passes (71 a year) for 4,208 yards (831 Yr) while adding 26 touchdowns.
Fantasy Outlook-
If you miss out on one of the top-6 tight ends, Walker is a great late round add as he currently has an ADP of #139.
Running Back-
The offense struggled to produce up until week 12 when they started to force feed Derrick Henry the ball. Having no data on Arthur Smith as a play caller, one has to think that they begin the season in the same way that it ended, handing it to Derrick Henry as often as possible. In terms of the passing game, third down specialist Dion Lewis handles that role but it looks to be minimal as Mariota throws only 16.4% of passes to his running backs which ranks 18th in the NFL.
Derrick Henry has a track record of proven results that if he receives 15+ carries production will follow. In the 11 games in which he has had 15 or more carries he has scored in seven of those eleven and rushed for more than 50 yards in all eleven. In the games that he has recorded 19 or more carries, he has 131, 170, 84, and 146 rushing yards. The Titans must GIVE HIM THE BALL 20+ times a game if they're looking to win more than the 8 game win total Vegas has them at.
Fantasy Outlook-
I learned my lesson last season with this very team. I put so much trust in LaFleur's offensive background learning from two of the games best in Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan that I allowed my mind to think that he too would be like his mentors. I was completely wrong as great offensive minds just don't grow on trees.
I have no idea what Arthur Smith will do, I know what I would do but can I trust this rookie OC to do all of the little things needed to run a successful offense? With an ADP of #36 I will find a player that I know what his coordinator will do with him and pass on the Titans massive running back.
2019 Vegas Win Total The Titans’ Win Total opened at 8 (+100). My biggest miss last season was how much I overvalued Matt LaFleur and his coaching abilities. The Titans offense lacked creativity and explosiveness last season. While I do think Mike Vrabel is a good head coach his offensive coordinator hires have been outright disastrous. I do not get promoting Fed-Ex son Arthur Smith who has zero experience calling plays at any level to offensive coordinator. The division is difficult and very balanced with Indianapolis, Houston, and Jacksonville all playoff contenders. Out of the division, it doesn't get any easier as they will have to face the NFC South which has three teams that will also be playoff contenders. I am going to play the under 8 wins, sorry to my friends in Tennessee as I see this a 4-7 win team this season.
