Grading Breakouts & Sleepers 2018
With the NFL draft in the rearview, we will take a look back at last season to see how we did with our breakout and sleeper candidates. Below you will see my grades on both breakouts and sleepers for the 2018 season. The BOLD items will be the breakdown of how the year played out. The original comments made last august will be above the BOLD breakdown. Enjoy!
Breakouts -
Saquon Barkley - RB #9 ADP 14
The rookie from Penn State is going to have a monster season. He should see well over 275 carries and be heavily involved in the passing game. I would be looking to take him in the top-8 overall especially if you're the type that loves RBs. I have him going ahead of Hunt, Gordon, Fournette, and Cook.
Barkley lived up to his billing coming out of Penn State.
Christian McCaffrey - RB #16 ADP 35
I am finally buying into all the coaches hype about McCaffrey. If he does indeed get the workload expected, I would have him right behind Barkley as my RB#7. He is going to catch over 75 balls and should be much more involved in the running game after only 117 carries as a rookie.
McCaffrey got a huge increase in his workload from his rookie season and it paid dividends as I expected.
Devonte Adams - WR #10 ADP 24
With Jordy Nelson gone, Adams is poised for a breakout year in which he should see around 140 targets. Rodgers #1 target has never not finished inside of the top 10 at his position and I would expect Adams to get near the top-5 this season.
With Jordy gone, Adams finally took the reigns as Rodgers top target.
Stefon Diggs - WR #17 ADP 38
With Keenum no longer in Minnesota, Diggs will no longer be the second option with the Vikings. It seems as though Cousins and Diggs have developed an early chemistry which should showcase his talents this season.
While I missed on Diggs being Cousins primary receiver he was still an elite WR finishing inside the top 12.
Royce Freeman - RB #28 ADP 88
The rookie out of Oregon should take over as the lead back in Denver early into the season. I frankly do not believe in Booker as a player and with Keenum making this offense serviceable, I expect Freeman to take advantage of his opportunity and finish as a top-20 RB with the offensive line that has been put in place.
Well I was correct in that a rookie Denver running back would finish inside the top 30 it was just the wrong one.
Michael Crabtree - WR #30 ADP 78
An absolute red-zone monster, Flacco will be looking Crabtree's way early and often this season. While he is not much of a deep-threat, he should see more than 120 targets and a ridiculous amount of red-zone targets which he should convert into 8 or so touchdowns. I love where he is currently going in drafts as he would be an ideal WR3.
Crabtree was having a solid season and on pace to finish above his ADP till the Flacco injury. Once the keys were turned over to Lamar Jackson, all Baltimore wide receivers didn't stand a chance as he is just no where near an NFL QB in terms of the passing game.
Emmanuel Sanders - WR #35 ADP 92
Probably one of my favorite sleepers this season, I fully expect Sanders to out play Demaryius Thomas this season. Keenum peppered Thielen 143 times last year while Diggs only saw 95, while I still think Thomas gets over 110, Sanders will be his favorite target and lead the Broncos in catches this season.
On his way to a top 15 finish at his position, Sanders shattered his value before an Achilles injury cost him the rest of his season. Even with the injury he still practically doubled his ADP.
Marquise Goodwin - WR #37 ADP 102
Much like the Sanders situation, I fully expect Goodwin to out play Garcon this season. Jimmy G has his eyes squarely on old porn-stars off the field and Marquise Goodwin on it. With Garcon missing the final eight games the season, Goodwin and Garoppolos' chemistry developed, this olympic speedster is ready to fly in 2018.
Well once Jimmy G went out in week 3 Goodwin stood no chance at achieving the range that I thought he would in the preseason. It also didn't help that he could not stay healthy all season as he missed
Sony Michel / Rex Burkhead
Both of these guys are going to have great games for the Patriots this season. Currently both are sidelined by knee injuries but should rejoin the team before the season starts. I think Michel finishes as a top 15 back if he can get his knee healthy and not fumble the football. You will have to wait till October for this situation to play out though, be patient both have tremendous upside.
Grade = A Final Ranking RB #67 Overall
Michel was an absolute workhorse for the Patriots in the second half of the season after he recovered from his early season knee injury.
Aaron Jones or J. Williams - RB #42 ADP 115
One of the best situations in the league, one of these two should finish as a top-20 back should he stay healthy for the Packers this season. I am trying to get both players in all drafts.
As I stated above one would finish as a top-20 back. Once Jones was handed the keys as the starter by the incompetent Mike McCarthy he finished the season on a tear.
Frankly, I could go on for hours. The following players will ball out this season and surpass their ADP.
Crowder, C Thompson, Burton, Carson, Cohen, Barber, Lockett, Cole, Godwin, A. Miller, Gallup, C. Meredith, Seals-Jones, Allison, Tre'quan Smith
Chris Carson, Tariq Cohen, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin all absolutely smashed their ADP and should be high draft picks this coming season.
I would also look for bounce back years from Thompson, Crowder, P. Barber, A. Miller, C. Meredith and Tre. Smith who all struggled with injuries.
I do not put quarterbacks in these articles but if you read the team preview for the following you know how high I am on each. Patrick Freaking Mahomes is going to light it up this year and put up D. Watson like numbers in his small rookie sample size. Also get as many shares of Andrew Luck on your roster as you can he is going to finish as a top-5 fantasy football quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes = Grade A++ Season winning QB. This was probably the biggest hit and money maker for me last season. I had a ton of Mahomes but more importantly bet him 50-1 at several books. I have a couple other high priced MVP QBs pegged for this season, so keep an eye out for that article as well.
Sleepers -
Mark Ingram - RB #22 ADP 62
Suspended for the first 4 games, Mark Ingram looks to finish the final 12 as a top-15 fantasy football back. He is in a great situation in which he should see a ton of work as they look to keep him and Kamara fresh for the playoffs. You're getting great value in the 5th round taking Ingram
Grade = C Final Ranking RB# 29 # 69 Overall
Ingram was suspended for the first 4 games of the season.
Julian Edelman - WR #32 ADP 88
Also suspended for the first four games of the season, Brady's favorite slot receiver returns week 5. Getting a top-20 receiver in the 8th or 9th round is stealing and that is what you have to look forward to should you draft Edelman.
Grade = A Final Ranking WR# 22 #45 Overall
Edelman was suspended for the first 4 games of the season.
Marshawn Lynch - RB #27 ADP 72
I expect Jon Gruden to run the football this year and that means a lot of volume for Beast Mode. While he is no longer capable of breaking long runs, he will provide you with the perfect RB3 type player that should get around 8 touchdowns this season.
Grade = B Final Ranking RB# 60 #161 Overall
Unfortunately Lynch suffered a season ending injury in week.
Nelson Agholor - WR #40 ADP 112
With Alshon looking like a potential PUP add, Agholor looks poised for another very good year. One of the best offenses last season, Agholor should see a lot more red-zone looks while adding to his 62 receptions this season.
Grade = B Final Ranking WR# 35 # Overall
Having his best season in the NFL, Agholor made some strides that we projected.
Randall Cobb - WR #48 ADP 129
One of the more dependable receivers for Rodgers will be the kid from Alcoa. I think Cobb has top-30 WR upside and should provide you with great value going after pick 10.
He should still see over 100 targets while catching 6+ touchdowns in the red-zone. I will be getting as many late shares as I can of Cobb this season.
Grade = F Final Ranking WR# 129 # Overall
An extremely disappointing season for Cobb as he struggled on and off the field.
Kenny Stills - WR #42 ADP 118
The leading returning receiver for the Dolphins is Kenny Stills. Oh yea, over 160 targets also walked out the door with Jarvis Landry no longer around. If you're going for an upside play in the 10th or 11th round, Kenny Stills is the definition. While I think the slot receivers catch more balls, Stills will for sure see an uptick in volume this season.
Grade = C Final Ranking WR# 46 #91 Overall
Kenny Stills was hoping to break out this year. Instead he performed as he was expected.
Jordan Reed - TE #13 ADP 108
If he stays healthy and you drafted Jordan Reed, you will be getting the biggest steal in the draft. I think Reed is going to have a monster season for the Redskins as Alex Smith is one of the most proficient TE passers in the league. I am trying to get him in every draft that I can this season.
Another year that Jordan Reed could not stay healthy.
