Team Previews - Atlanta Falcons

Projected Starting Lineup QB: Matt Ryan RB: Devonta Freeman WR: Julio Jones WR: Mohamed Sanu WR: Calvin Ridley

TE: Austin Hooper LT: Jake Matthews LG: Andy Levitre C: Alex Mack RG: Brandon Fusco RT: Ryan Schraeder

Falcons Offensive Profile Under Dan Quinn 2015-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 8th, 26th, 20th 2015-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 16th, 12th, 16th 2015-2017 Play Volume Rank: 7th, 26th, 25th 2015-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 11th, 1st, 3rd Unaccounted for Air Yards from 2017 (Rank): 740 (24th) Unaccounted for Carries from 2017 (Rank): 10 (29th)

Steve Sarkisian's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. (1 Season)

Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE

529 342 64.7 4095 7.7 246.2 88 20 3.8 12 2.3 24 156 91.4

Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN

430 1847 4.3 52 11 12 115.4 9 4 101

Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN

343 530 4146 12.1 21 88 55 259.1 1 0 1690 200

Quarterback- With the loss of Kyle Shanahan, Matt Ryan saw his production drop off significantly from his previous two seasons with Kyle as his OC. In order to get a better understanding, I included last years numbers vs the average of his two seasons with Shanahan calling plays. Last year he completed 64.7% compared to (68.1%) , he passed for 4095 yards compared to (4,768), he threw 20 touchdowns, compared to (29). While Ryan has only thrown for over 30 TD’s twice in his 10-year career he was 6 TD’s short of his career average (26.3). The good news for Ryan is that he led an Atlanta offense that ranked third in the NFL in both yards per play and yards per drive. While last year he was viewed as the top QB candidate for negative-touchdown regression, he will be on the opposite end of the spectrum and should see a positive-touchdown regression. Currently he carries an Average Draft Position of a fantasy backup, which makes him a prime candidate for me if I decide to take one of my young guns (Mahomes, Watson, Garoppolo). While I currently have him ranked as the 13th best quarterback, he would bring stability to a couple of high upside players should they not pan-out.

Wide Receiver-

The most physically gifted wide-out in the league is coming off a “disappointing” season despite finishing second in the NFL in receiving yards (1,444). I am not sure how it is possible for a 6’3 220lb 4.3 gazelle to catch 3 touchdowns on 149 targets, (19) in the red-zone but Julio Jones managed to do so. The good news is that with just 3 touchdowns, he still finished as a top-seven wideout in both PPR and non-PPR scoring. The lack of touchdown production should not be surprising though, as he has only reached double digits ONCE! He too will be on the positive side of touchdown regression. Without a doubt he should be selected as one of the first four wide receivers off the board come draft day.

Since 2008, Matt Ryan has targeted outside wide receivers 2203 times (42.1%), which currently is the 5th highest percentage in the NFL during that span. With knowing that do we want to take a look next at Mohamed Sanu who ran 44.6% of his routes out of the slot? Perhaps we should focus more on one of the most precise route runners to get drafted in the last decade. Calvin Ridley should see the majority of his snaps outside. While he is not the biggest (6’1) or strongest (15 reps) his precise route running, short-area quickness to match his (4.43) speed he will compliment Jones extremely well. He never had great quarterback play during his time at Alabama, yet he still had the second-most catches (224) and receiving TDs (19) in Alabama history despite turning pro after his Junior year. I love his upside especially with Jones injury history, but it appears too many mouths to feed for him to be anything more than a WR3/4 in his rookie season. I absolutely love him in dynasty leagues.

The selection of Ridley further solidifies Sanu’s role as the teams primary slot receiver. He has been extremely efficient in the slot catching 71.2% while running 63% of his routes there. He has led the Falcons in red-zone efficiency as well converting 9-of-25 (36%) red-zone targets into TDs which makes Julio’s 3-for-29 (10.3%) puke worthy. While he has excelled in the red-zone, Sanu has never exceeded 800 yards or five touchdowns in a single season making his ceiling fairly low. I do not see him reaching his 96-target mark from a year ago but do see him as solid contributor out of the slot. The addition of Ridley eliminates him as a draft prospect in 10-12 team leagues but with an injury to Jones or Ridley he does provide upside.

Tight End-

At tight end Austin Hooper will continue to dominate offensive snaps as he played 77% of them last year. However he finished with only 49 catches on 65 targets adding 3 touchdowns. This position has been neglected since Tony Gonzales retired and I do not see this season being any different. Yet another year with a Falcons TE off the draft board.

Running Back-

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman look to dominate snaps again in the running game. Freeman dealt with injuries throughout the year missing Weeks 11-12 with another concussion, he also was battling MCL and PCL sprains. Freeman out-touched Coleman 16.2 to 10.7 per game. The one common trend that does not bode well for Freeman is his decreased usage in the passing game. In 2015 he had 97 targets, the following year he had 65 and with Sarkisian he saw just 46. Coleman remained the same in his two years with the Falcons (40) and (39). With Freeman signed for the next several years and Coleman’s contract coming to an end, I do wonder if they run Coleman more trying to save some tread on Freeman’s tires. It is almost a certainty that Tevin Coleman will not be resigned after this season allowing him to become a free agent. This really has become a murky situation, as both are pretty involved and take away RB1 production from each other. I still look for Freeman to be the featured back and finish among the top 20 running backs in the 2018 season but wouldn't be looking to take him in the first 30 picks of the draft.

I have been one of the biggest Tevin Coleman fans since he was drafted, unfortunately he has been second fiddle to Freeman. During the two games Freeman was out in 2017, Coleman totaled 155 yards and three TD's against the Buccaneers and Seahawks. He should continue to see his 9-12 touches a game and could be a fantasy monster if Freeman misses an extended amount of time. His current ADP is far too high for me to select him. I just can not take a guy that will only touch the ball 9-12 times a game in the first 70 picks of a draft.

Vegas Win Total

The Falcons win total opened at 9 a number they’ve surpassed in consecutive seasons (11-5, 10-6).Dan Quinn is one of the best defensive minds in the game and will continue to make the most of his inferior talent. The talent on offense can not be questioned, especially with the addition of Ridley outside. My biggest question mark for this team is Steve Sarkisian as I do not view him as a very good offensive mind. The most important aspect to me in the NFL is red-zone efficiency offensively and defensively. This comes down to coaching, which I think the Falcons are at an extreme disadvantage when on offense. Under Shanahan the Falcons were 64.6% and 8th in the NFL, a year later with Sarkisian they were 49.2% and finished 23rd. The schedule is favorable, it is currently projected middle of the pack but this team looks poised to make it 3 straight years with 9+ wins.