Team Previews - Carolina Panthers
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Cam Newton RB: Christian McCaffrey WR: Devin Funchess WR: D.J. Moore WR: Torrey Smith
TE: Greg Olsen
LT: Matt Kalil LG: Amini Silatolu C: Ryan Kalil RG: Trai Turner RT: Daryl Williams
Panthers 2015-2017 Offensive Profile 2015-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 27th > 20th > 27th 2015-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 1st > 7th > 3rd 2015-2017 Play Volume Rank: 8th > 8th > 13th 2015-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 13th > 21st > 19th Unaccounted for Air Yards from 2017 (Rank): 1,586 (8th) Unaccounted for Carries from 2017 (Rank): 202 (8th)
Norv Turner's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL last (7 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
529 334 63.4 3813 7.33 225 71 23 4.4 13 2.41 37 247 90.2
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
419 1680 4 54 11 13 99.7 4 2 88
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
334 528 3856 11.5 23 71 50 247 3 1 1779 186
Quarterback-
Cam Newton is seeking to make it 6-of-8 years as a top-five fantasy football quarterback. He will be looking to do so with a veteran offensive coordinator in Norv Turner, as Mike Shula was relieved of his duties. This will be an interesting mix, as Turner’s offenses have always relied upon pocket passers such as Troy Aikman, and Phillip Rivers. This should be the most talented offensive team the Panthers have had under Cam and he should take advantage.
Wide Receiever-
It starts with their most talented skill player Christian McCaffrey. He led the team in targets (113) as a rookie and caught the second most touchdown passes (5). In terms of receivers, Devin Funchess finally emerged as the go-to guy they envisioned when they selected him in the 2nd round. While Funchess does not create much separation, he is a big-bodied target that Cam leans on when he needs to make a play. The most gifted pass catcher on this team is rookie D.J. Moore. Clearly the best receiver at the combine, Moore dominated running a 4.42 forty, 39.5 vertical, 132-inch broad jump and a blazing 4.08 20-yard shuttle. His freakish athleticism can’t be questioned, but becoming a dominant wide out with Cam Newton can be. Newton has only had two seasons in which he completed more than 60% of his passes (60.0%, 61.7%), which makes it extremely difficult to finish inside the top 20 at wide receiver. With that said, Funchess is a solid fantasy option later in your draft. I do not see Moore as anything more than a late round option at this point, as he will likely be fourth on the team in targets behind McCaffrey, Funchess, and Olsen.
The Panthers other receivers that will be involved this year will be Torrey Smith, Curtis Samuel. Both of these players provide a dynamic skill set with the ball and can absolutely fly. Samuel was unable to stay healthy in his first season, however he should have a bounce back year this year. Turner will utilize him much like he did Sproles in San Diego (74 catches) for (1,017 yards) and (9) touchdowns in his 2 years with Turner calling plays. Turner’s offensive attack is also predicated on vertical down the field threats, which is exactly what Torrey Smith specializes in. Smith has averaged 16.4 yards per catch and scored 39 touchdowns in his career. These players will not be taken in any drafts but Samuel is intriguing, as he will get carries and will have a role in the passing game as well.
Tight End-
The one thing Cam does really well is getting his tight ends involved in the passing game. Newton has thrown the 4th most pass attempts (803) or 25.3% of his throws to tight ends since entering the league in 2011. Greg Olsen is returning after having a very disappointing injury plagued year in 2017. Not only does his quarterback love tight ends but his offensive coordinator does as well. Since 2007 Turner’s top tight-end has caught (75, 60, 79, 80, 24, 49, 83) passes with an average of 6.5 touchdowns per year. If Olsen can stay healthy he should be in for a tremendous 2018 season and finish as a top five TE. If you do not get Gronkowski, Kelce or Ertz you should be looking for Olsen in rounds 5/6.
Running Back-
Looking back at last years Panther team the biggest disappointment was Christian McCaffrey in the running game. The guy that produced so many highlight-reel plays in college only found the end zone two times in his rookie campaign. He averaged 3.7 yards a carry compared to his 6.1 in college. The good news is that his receiving production was good enough to make him a top 15-running-back in PPR and non-PPR formats. While there is talk of 200 plus carries for McCaffrey this coming season, I do not envision him that involved in the run game. He is a great RB2 and is someone that I would be targeting in the late 2nd to 3rd round of your drafts.
The reason that I do not see McCaffrey approaching that 200 carry mark is C.J. Anderson. He is a younger version of Jonathan Stewart. Anderson is a much better fit between that tackles than McCaffrey and should compliment Cam in the read option attack. The Panthers did however sustain a major hit on the offensive line as one of the best guards, Andrew Norwell signed with Jacksonville. I look for Anderson to be the bell cow in the running game and should have some touchdown upside. With McCaffrey and Samuel taking all passing duties away from Anderson, his value takes a hit though. I only view Anderson as a plug and play type player with RB2 upside. 2018 Vegas Win Total The Panthers’ Win Total opened at 9. The NFC south is one of the toughest divisions in football and they get no favors in having to play the NFC East. They will also have to navigate a difficult schedule with two new coordinators in place. While I do think Turner is an upgrade over Shula, he has never worked with this type of attack and they’re extremely thin on the offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be without Thomas Davis for the first four games of the season. This team was tremendous in one score games last year winning 8-of-9 games. With so much parity in the league, it would be shocking if we did not see some type of regression this year. I expect the Panthers to be very competitive, but it will need to stay healthy along the o-line to make another post-season run.
