Team Preview - Chicago Bears
Projected Starting Lineup QB: Mitchell Trubisky RB: Jordan Howard WR: Allen Robinson WR: Taylor Gabriel WR: Anthony Miller TE: Trey Burton
LT: Charles Leno LG: James Daniels C: Cody Whitehair RG: Kyle Long RT: Bobby Massie
Bears 2015-2017 Offensive Profile 2015-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 25th, 22nd, 32nd 2015-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 6th, 25th, 18th 2015-2017 Play Volume Rank: 18th, 30th, 31st 2015-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 21st, 5th, 23rd Unaccounted for Air Yards from 2017 (Rank): 2,197 (5th) Unaccounted for Carries from 2017 (Rank): 4 (30th)
Matt Nagy's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. (2 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
545 364 66.9 4120 7.6 245 80 23 4.15 8 1.5 35 198 97
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
409 1826 4.45 70 14 14 114 4 3 91
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
364 545 4120 11.3 23 80 50 256 3 1 2019 198
Quarterback-
There is a sense of optimism in one of my favorite cities. The Bears with new head coach Matt Nagy look to grow a talented offense under second year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The hope is that Nagy (Chiefs) will have the same impact Sean McVay (Rams) had with Jared Goff this past season. The Bears will be running a spread attack that much better fits Trubisky's skillset. The upgrades did not stop with coaching, as the bears also upgraded their supporting-cast with offseason additions Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel, and Anthony Miller. While I am not as high on Trubisky (QB21) as others in the industry, I do see this offense and team improving as the year goes on.
Wide Receiver-
With the acquisition of Allen Robinson the Bears now have a true number one receiver on the roster. The issue that I have with Robinson is that he is less than a year removed from a torn ACL and his production often came when the Jaguars were getting blown out games. Which makes his 80 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns misleading in 2015. The other factor that I find troubling is his 52% catch rate, but you do have to give him the benefit of the doubt, as Blake Bortles was his quarterback. With his current ADP 46, I will not own him in many leagues. I will need to see proof that he can actually dominate a game when his team is competitive before I use a top 35 pick on him.
The receiver I am most excited about for the Bears is rookie Anthony Miller. I absolutely loved his game in college and think he can develop into a very good player in this offense. He absolutely dominated his final two seasons at Memphis, catching 191 balls for 2,896 yards and 32 touchdowns. He is an exceptional route runner and has superb short-area quickness (6.63 three-cone). I could see Miller leading this team in catches, as Trubisky typically looks the way of his slot receiver (Kendall Wright CHI and Ryan Switzer UNC).
The two other wide receivers that should factor in the passing game will be Taylor Gabriel, who fills the “Z” role, as the Bears’ deep threat and injury plagued Kevin White. Gabriel is a gadget type player, that at any moment can take the top off of a defense. While Kevin White is a physical specimen, at 6’3 216 pounds who has 4.4 speed. He has never been able to stay healthy, as he has only played 5 games since being drafted in 2016. His upside is tremendous, but this will be another see it to believe it type situation.
Tight End-
It is no secret that Andy Reid offenses love utilizing the tight end. The Chiefs and Nagy peppered Travis Kelce with targets, as did former Reid assistant Doug Pederson with Zach Ertz. With Nagy now in Chicago, he grabbed his own athletic version when he signed Trey Burton. In the four games in which he filled in for Ertz, Burton was extremely productive catching 14 balls for 180 yards and 4 touchdowns. While Burton will see the majority of his routes from the slot, Adam Shaheen (6’6/270) will be the in-line compliment that will unfortunately diminish Burton’s value especially in the red zone. While I am looking to take Burton (TE9), he is currently going too high for my liking. Round 8-9 range would be ideal for Burton with Shaheen stealing away targets and touchdowns. Running Back-
There have been a lot of questions surrounding Jordan Howard this off season, was he going to be traded, is he a good fit for Nagy’s offense? With no new additions in the draft or via free agency, it looks as though he will be the primary ball carrier for the Bears this season. While his yards-per-carry plummeted from 5.2 to 4.1 he still rushed for over 1,100 yards and 9 scores. It was actually a very good season when you consider the following. The Bears offense ranked 30-out-of-32 teams last season and Howard faced eight-plus defenders in the box (43.1%) of the time. While Howard is one of the better running backs in the league, his lack of involvement and poor play in the passing game that keeps him outside of the top 12. He had 14 drops in his first two seasons and averaged a dreadful 5.4 yards per catch last season on 23 receptions. The good news is that with the addition of Nagy and Helfrich’s spread attack, he should face less loaded boxes and see more in the passing game while still dominating early-down work in what should be a much-improved offense. He is a great fit for your RB2 needs and is someone I will be looking for in the 3rd if he falls.
One of the most dynamic players last year was rookie Tark Cohen. He flashed lots of potential, but also showed signs of needing to adjust to the NFL game. He was often too impatient, as he tried to hit a home run every time he touched the ball. While everyone will want to make the Tyreek Hill comparisons (5’10/185) Cohen (5’6/181) he is much more of a running back than a receiver. I do think that he will be utilized as Hill was when Nagy called plays in KC though and love his upside. He should be lined up all over the field in the slot, backfield, out wide and in motion and I look for him to see around 100 carries and over 60 catches in this Bears offense. However at his current ADP of 77, I just can't take him as others in this range will see more volume. 2018 Vegas Win Total The Bears’ Win Total opened at 6.5. It does them no favors having to face the Packers, Vikings, and Lions twice apiece. They do catch a break facing the AFC East, however they also have to deal with the difficult NFC West. The best news this off season might of been being able to retain one of the leagues best defensive coaches in Vic Fangio. With the offensive no longer being hampered by that fossil John Fox, the Bears should be improved on both sides of the ball. The other area in which I think this team dramatically improves upon, will be it's 2-6 record in one-score games. Having achieved 5 wins last year with such an awful coaching staff on offense, I will be a buyer in the Bears winning more than 6.5 games this season.
