Team Previews - Houston Texans
Projected Starting Lineup QB: Deshaun Watson RB: Lamar Miller WR: DeAndre Hopkins WR: Will Fuller WR: Keke Coutee TE: Ryan Griffin
LT: Julien Davenport LG: Zach Fulton C: Nick Martin RG: Senio Kelemete RT: Seantrel Henderson
Texans Offensive Profile Under Bill O’Brien 2014-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 30th, 9th, 14th, 23rd 2014-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 1st, 5th, 6th, 11th 2014-2017 Play Volume Rank: 8th, 1st, 5th, 12th 2014-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 24th, 31st, 31st, 20th Unaccounted for Air Yards from 2017: 341 (29th) Unaccounted for Carries from 2017: 15 (26th)
Bill O'Brien's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator in Houston. (4 Seasons)
Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE
553 325 58.8 3650 6.6 213 65 24 4.2 15 2.6 37 241 82
Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN
482 1898 3.95 47 9 9 119 6 2 97
Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
325 553 3650 11.3 24 66 46 228 3 2 1304 184 Quarterback-
The rookie sensation Deshaun Watson is less than a year removed from a torn ACL after taking the league by storm last season. After coming out of the blocks a little slow, Watson completed 99 passes for 1,472 yards and 18 touchdowns in his final 5 games. Last season he threw a touchdown on 9.3% of his passes, which is more than double the NFL average. His dual-threat ability makes him a lock inside the top-10 while adding possible top-3 upside. In his six full games, he ran the ball 34 times for 253 yards and two touchdowns. While I do have him as one of my breakout quarterbacks in 2018, I will not be able to draft him at his current ADP of 60. This is by far the deepest position in the draft and I will not be taking a quarterback in the first 6 rounds this fantasy football season. Wide Receiver-
DeAndre Hopkins provided proof of exactly how terrible Brock Osweiler was as an NFL quarterback. Catching 96 of 176 targets for 1,378 yards and 13 touchdowns, Hopkins finished the season as the #1 overall wide receiver last season. In his six full games with Watson, he caught 38 of 60 balls for 551 yards and 6 touchdowns. With a full year of Watson as his quarterback, Hopkins should challenge Antonio Brown as the number #1 fantasy football receiver. If I am not getting Bell, Gurley, Elliott, Johnson or Brown I am looking to take Hopkins in the first round.
One of the best deep-threats last season was Will Fuller. In the four games that he played with Deshaun Watson, Fuller caught 13 passes for 279 yards and seven yes seven touchdowns! He unfortunately did not catch a single touchdown in his remaining 6 games that he played without Watson. It should not be a surprise that he averaged 15.1 yards a catch last season as he ran a 4.32 at the combine. With an ADP of 72, he is far too inconsistent for me to grab him in the draft, but is someone you must own in best-ball. If Watson can supply him with more steady volume and he can stay healthy, Fuller will be a great get in the 7th or 8th round depending on your league.
With Hopkins and Fuller primarily on the outside, the Texans will need a slot receiver to step up and offer matchup problems in the middle of the field. I am hoping that rookie Keke Coutee can come in and take that role over as Braxton Miller and Bruce Ellington just do not have the ability that Coutee contains. He is an absolute matchup nightmare with great speed (4.43) but needs to work on his release from the line of scrimmage for him to succeed in the NFL. The 5'11/180 speedster from Texas Tech caught 93 balls for 1,429 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. I am looking to grab Coutee shares in all dynasty leagues, but he will be nothing more than a waiver wire add to start this season as he is currently going un-drafted.
Tight End-
The tight end position doesn't appear to have much value for what should be a top-10 offense. Ryan Griffin looks to be the starter with Stephen Anderson as his primary backup. Anderson is an abysmal blocker and can only be brought in on passing downs which leads me to believe Griffin sees the more playing time resulting in more targets between the two. I have no interest in these two players, but if I was going to keep track of one it would be Anderson as he has a lot of ability in the passing game. Running Back- With the torn Achilles of D'Onta Foreman, Lamar Miller will be the lead running back for the Texans. After looking like a promising young back in Miami, Miller has been a big disappointment in Houston. With 238 carries, Miller only ran for 888 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. With 274 touches he was able to eclipse 1,200 yards making him a volume based RB2/3. The most disturbing thing was seeing his usage drop in the final weeks of the season as Alfred Blue out-carried him in the final few games of the season by more than double. If you are in need of a running back that is likely to see a lot of volume in round 5, Miller is your guy.
One of the first waiver wire selections that I will be looking to make will be D'Onta Foreman based on his pup-list decision. In his final game of the season, Foreman carried it 10 times for 65 yards and two touchdowns. If he is going to be placed on the pup-list, he is a week 6 waiver wire add. Another fear and reason you should not use a pick on Foreman is what this injury has done to all running backs in the past. If you can come up with a single running back that came back from a torn Achilles and been productive, you would be the first, as it has never happened 2018 Vegas Win Total The Texans’ Win Total opened at 8.5. With the return of Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus the Texans are no doubt looking to double last years 4-12 record. While the division will be much improved with Andrew Luck's return and a healthy Marcus Mariota, the Texans should be right in the middle of the division race. They catch a break with the schedule as well, getting to face the NFC East and AFC East. The 8.5 win total is spot on and offers no value for me to make a wager this season.
