Team Previews - Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Pat Mahomes RB: Kareem Hunt WR: Tyreek Hill WR: Sammy Watkins WR: Demarcus Robinson TE: Travis Kelce

LT: Eric Fisher LG: Bryan Witzmann C: Mitch Morse RG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif RT: Mitchell Schwartz

Chiefs Offensive Profile Under Andy Reid 2014-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 28th, 29th, 25th, 17th 2014-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 16th, 12th, 14th, 23rd 2014-2017 Play Volume Rank: 29th, 31st, 27th, 24th 2014-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 17th, 12th, 16th, 2nd Unaccounted for Air Yards from 2017: 532 (27th) Unaccounted for Carries from 2017: 66 (21st)

Andy Reid's average offensive production as an Offensive Coordinator for the chiefs. (5 Seasons)

Passing: ATT COMP PCT YDS AVG YDS/G LONG TD TD% INT INT% SACK YDSL RATE

520 338 65 3744 7.2 220 76 22 4.12 7 1.44 41 220 94

Rushing: ATT YDS AVG LONG 20+ TD YDS/G FUM FUML 1DN

423 1934 4.58 60 13 16 121 6 3 100

Receiving: REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN

338 520 3744 11.06 21 76 46 234 5 3 1974 182 Quarterback-

The Pat Mahomes era officially begins in Kansas City. One of the most talented arms to come out of the draft in sometime, Mahomes will have a lot of toys to play with this season. The Chiefs upgraded at wide receiver, as Sammy Watkins will be replacing Albert Wilson via free agency. Mahomes and his other backup teammates played in the regular season finale vs Denver in which he completed 22 of 35 passes for 284 yards and no touchdowns. In his final two years at Texas Tech, Mahomes threw for 9,678 yards completing 64.6% of his passes while throwing for 77 touchdowns. With a fire-sale on defense, it is likely that the Chiefs will be playing from behind a ton this year only adding value to Mahomes. Another great attribute is his rushing ability, rushing for 22 touchdowns in his career. All of these reasons are why I have Mahomes as one of my breakout candidates this year. I can not get enough shares of Mahomes this season as he legitimately has QB#1 upside and is someone well worth his ADP of 116.

Wide Receiver-

The Cheetah looks to build on his impressive second year in the league. Tyreek Hill lead the wide receivers in targets with (105) catching 75 of them for (1,183) yards which was 7th best in the league while adding 7 receiving touchdowns. While everyone keeps waiting for his TD regression as all 13 of his touchdowns have come from 30 or more yards out, I am not so sure that like him it slows down. I am also impressed with his 72.3% catch-rate as a pro considering he was a raw (5'10/180) prospect. While the addition of Watkins makes you believe his target share will drop, I actually think it might increase. Hill has dominated this offseason and has already established a good rapport with Mahomes, while Watkins will again be struggling to learn a new offense. He is going to have some absolutely massive weeks that will win you your matchup. The downside is that he will also disappear at times with lack of consistency. I am in love with Hill at the end of the 2nd or early 3rd round of your drafts.

Sammy Watkins athletic ability has never been in question. His ability to learn an NFL offense while understanding a defense is something that has. After a disappointing year with the Rams in which he caught 39 of 70 balls for 593 yards, Watkins should be more involved in the passing game. If he can learn the Chiefs offense and maximize his effort with his athleticism he could end up out targeting Hill and become the Chiefs #1 receiver. I frankly do not see that happening this year and will be cautious in taking Watkins anything before round 6. With Hill and Watkins seeing the majority of the targets, the Chiefs will rely upon Demarcus Robinson, De'Anthony Thomas and Chris Conley to handle the rest. Robinson is a talented kid out of Florida who caught 21 balls for 212 yards in his rookie season. At 6'1/203 pounds he has a bigger frame that will keep him on the outside as he only ran 3.3% of routes from the slot. De'Anthony Thomas is a gadget type player that will see snaps all over the field. Conley is most likely to see the most targets out of this group having caught 44 balls in 2016. He is coming off of a torn Achilles though and is unlikely to make an impact earlier in the season. Tight End-

The most reliable elite tight end in the draft is Travis Kelce. He has played in every game since 2014 and has seen his target share rise in each season as well. Since entering the league, Kelce has yet to finish outside the top-9 in fantasy points for tight ends (9, 6, 1, 2). He is a sure fire top-3 fantasy football tight end and very well could take over the top spot from Gronk with his injury history. I would be looking to draft Kelce in the third round of drafts. Running Back- The rookie sensation came bursting onto the scene with his 17 carry, 148 yard rushing debut that also added 5 catches for 98 yards and three total touchdown explosion vs the Patriots. He finished a spectacular rookie season with 272 carries (4.9 ypc) for 1,327 yards adding 53 receptions for 455 yards and 11 total touchdowns. Hunt took full advantage of the season ending knee injury to Spencer Ware by leading the league in rushing and cementing himself as a top-12 player in fantasy. With Ware back it is unlikely that he handles 78.8% of the running back carries this season, but he should still be in line for tons of volume with a high powered offense giving him a lot of goal-line opportunities. I currently have him inside my top-10 and would be looking to draft him in the 1st or early 2nd round.

Spencer Ware will handle the backup duties in Kansas City. With Hunt handling the majority of the running and passing downs, Ware is only a handcuff pickup this fantasy football season. With a career average of 4.6 yards-per-carry Ware can be a solid starting back should anything happen to Hunt this season. 2018 Vegas Win Total The Chiefs’ Win Total opened at 8.5. Andy Reid has yet to win less than 9 games since arriving in Kansas City five years ago. They face a very difficult schedule early as well, (@Chargers, @Steelers, 49ers, @Broncos, Jaguars, @New England. This tough stretch will define there season most likely. The defense lost a ton and they will need to break-in a first year starter at quarterback with four of there first 6 games coming on the road. I am a fan of Andy Reid in the regular season as he is one of the most prepared coaches in the league, but he has a lot of things going against him this season. I will be sitting this one out as I see them finishing between 6-10 wins this season.